BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, August 20th, 2016 by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Well, we could be morbid and say that we wish the races at Saratoga were cancelled after the first instead of the fifth last Saturday, which would have saved us the embarrassment of watching out Pix do their worst. Even though they finished basically in the order we forecast, the were 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th. However, it was a stellar week otherwise for 2-year-old BreezeFigs maidens, especially at Saratoga where five won, kicking off one exacta, one trifecta and one superfecta along the way. The rest of the winners came at Del Mar (two, plus an exacta in the Best Pal Stakes), Ellis Park (three, including two exactas on the same card), Gulfstream, Laurel, and Remington (two). There was a paucity of starters among the 3-year-olds, but four of them won—at Arlington, Del Mar, Laurel, and Santa Rosa. Saturday's cards are opposite ends of the spectrum—only four on the 3-year-old card and an overwhelming abundance on the 2-year-old card. We’ve got one for each, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pix:
Saratoga, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
This one has five BreezeFigs maidens, one of which, Magnolia Mountain, is on the AE list and doesn’t look as competitive because his two-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSMAR seems to have been borne out in his debut at Parx despite his just-about-average 24.29 foot stride length (SL). We’re more interested in Prosperity Mo and Seven Forty Seven here. The former posted a six-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSJUN where his 24.69 foot SL was about a foot longer than average that day for colts at one eighth. Seven Forty Seven also posted a Group 1 profile on the same day at that sale, being five-over-Par with a 25.49 foot SL, which was about a foot-and-three-quarters longer than average. He’d also breezed at OBSAPR where he posted a three-under-Par Group 3 profile with a 24.88 foot SL, almost a foot longer than average—but was scratched (SCR) before the auction. Maybe he nicked himself or something. In any case, these two who come out of a lower-level sale have some nice numbers. So do Favorable Outcome and Goatzingis, who come out of OBSMAR with nice profiles. The former posted a six-over-Par Group 2 ticket at a quarter mile, where his 24.56 foot SL was about average for colts that day at that distance. Goatzingis posted a two-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 24. 01 foot SL, almost a half-foot longer than average for colts that day at one furlong. This may not turn out to be a key race in the long run, but it is going to be contentious, and if you key in on Prosperity Mo and Seven Forty Seven, you might get lucky.
Penn National, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Head for the Hills, the only first-timer on the card, posted a reasonable two-over-Par Group 2 profile last year at OBSAPR where her 23.37 foot SL was about a quarter foot longer than average for fillies that day at a quarter mile. Not much to beat here if everyone is healthy, might be worth a punt, and hope she heads for the finish line fast. Good luck!