BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, April 7, 2018, by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
The Easter Bunny did not deliver our Pick last week as Freeze Line finished fourth to sneak into the superfecta. Indeed, it was a quiet week for BreezeFigs maidens with seven of them getting home on top, but then again there weren’t many opportunities. The winners were at Charles Town, Gulfstream, Oaklawn (two), Santa Anita and Tampa Bay (two), BreezeFigs graduates did win and place third in the Florida Derby and Gulfstream Oaks, the latter resulting in a BreezeFigs trifecta. Keeneland opens Saturday, there is bad weather heading to the East Coast, and the card is rich with stakes and horses that are not first timers, but we found a special one, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Santa Anita, 2nd Race, Maiden Spcial Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Turf)
Three BreezeFigs maidens are in here, one on the AE list, and one, Alfareed, is a first timer—and he’s the one to whom attention should be paid. This one came out of EASMAY with a seven-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 24.69 foot stride length (SL), more than half-a-foot longer than average that day at a furlong for colts, which might be reflected in his 710k price. He is a really nice colt who could have a future. More Honor obviously hated the slop last time but his first two starts were fairly decent and he might improve on the weeds considering his three-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSAPR did feature a decent 23.83 foot SL, about a third-of-a-foot longer than average for colts that day at a furlong. Paint Me Lucky breezed at the same sale on the same day and pulled off a two-over-Par Group 2 profile with a slightly longer than average 23.68 foot SL. He’s on the AE and his first three starts have been very weird, so we think he needs to be ignored even if he gets in. On the other hand, you might consider Alfareed a serious key possibility even at 6-to-1 morning line, and More Honor a gimmick toss in. Good luck!