BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, April 1, 2017 by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
Despite a gate ruckus that delayed the start for several long minutes, our stand-alone Pick Alliford Bay acted, and then ran, professionally to score an impressive win over the favorite to pay a generous nine bucks. There were eight other BreezeFigs maidens which won during the week: Aqueduct (BreezeFigs exacta), Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Oaklawn (two), Parx and Santa Anita (two). We won’t try to fool you Saturday, (it is April 1, after all), because we found a solid play on the card, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Oaklawn Park, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
A few weeks ago we loved Visionary Tale in his debut along with another Pick—and he finished second to the latter in an impressive show. Saturday, he will go off a solid favorite and meets a Ekati’s Gem, a BreezeFigs first-timer who might give him some trouble if they are patient with him and don’t force him on the pace. He racked up a three-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSMAR with a 25.72 foot stride length (SL), which was almost a foot-and-three-quarters longer than average for colts that day at a furlong, on synthetic. That compares favorably with Visionary Tale’s eight-over-Par Group 1 profile at EASMAY where his 25.28 foot SL was a foot longer than average for a furlong on the dirt. Now we come to the mystery horse, Headliner, also making his debut. He is by Tapit, and the money will be there at the windows on that fact alone. But he posted two weird BreezeFigs tickets last year, first at FTFMAR where he had a four-under-par Group 3 profile—but with a 25.25 foot SL that was a foot-and-a-quarter longer than average for colts that day at one furlong, on the dirt. He did not sell, (RNA) at 145k. Then he came back at EASMAY with a similar profile—a four-under-Par Group 3 effort that featured a 25.14 foot SL, a foot-and-a-third longer than average, also at a furlong, also on the dirt. He was scratched (SCR), however after that breeze, and here he is today. He was a Group 3 because he was slow. He didn’t sell, or was scratched because he is not the most fluid mover in the world. But…you might want to sniff around the tote board and toss him in as a gimmick with Visionary Tale and Ekati’s Gem, which should be your keys anyway. Good luck!