BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for February 20th by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore
Midwinter doldrums have crept up, including radical changes in the weather which wiped out cards including the one for our Pick last week. Still, there were six BreezeFigs maidens who came through with winning performances, at Gulfstream (two), Laurel, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita (two), and three others won stakes at Golden Gate, Tampa Bay and Santa Anita. Things look a bit more stable in the weather department this weekend, and despite the paucity of first-time starters on today’s card, we got lucky in finding one we like, weather permitting, see below. Good luck!
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com and click on the tab BreezeFigs at the top of the page. In there you will find a link to a major study of how over 17,000 BreezeFigs horses from the sales 2007 through 2013 have succeeded on the racetrack based on Group and stride length. You can also access that study by clicking this link: www.biodatatrack.com/BreezeFigs-Study.pdf.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick: Aqueduct, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Inner Dirt)
This is a mix-and-match bunch with two of them having appeared in two sales last year, one who failed to sell at 240k (RNA), and one firster whom we kind of like. That latter one would be You Had Me At Halo, who came out of OBSMAR with a three-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 24.44 foot stride length (SL), about a half a foot longer than average that day for colts at a furlong. Monte Man came out of the same sale and breezed the same day at the same distance, chalking up a five-over-Par Group 1 effort with a 24.99 foot SL, a foot longer than average. He was roughed up and green in his debut and can better that with more distance here. Rolling Tizway also came out of the same sale and breezed a quarter mile, posting a one-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 24.65 foot SL, about a half-foot longer than average that day for colts at that distance—he’s the one who didn’t meet his reserve at the sale which is why that doesn’t appear in the PP’s. His debut was a stinker, however. Then we have Caderyn and Stevie Q, both of whom were in two sales. Caderyn is likely to be favored off his first three efforts and his sales history is good. He was one-under-Par Group 3 at FTFMAR with a 24.53 foot SL, about a half-foot longer than average for colts at a furlong that day—but he did not sell (RNA) at 300k. They wheeled him back at EASMAY where his four-over-Park Group 2 effort featured a 24.79 foot SL, about three-quarters of a foot longer than average for colts that day, this time at a quarter mile. Stevie Q, on the other hand, threw in a poor four-under-Par Group 3 effort on the same day as Caderyn at FTFMAR, with a 22.35 foot SL—more than a foot and a half shorter than average. He came back at OBSAPR with a one-over-Par Group 2 profile that had a longer SL at 24.39 feet, seven-eighths of a foot longer than average that day at a furlong. This race is highly contestable but a mile is a tough challenge for some horses. While Caderyn may have the experience, and is the logical favorite, both You Had Me At Halo and Monte Man are keen upset chances and could be your keys. Good luck!