Breeze-Figs Quick-Pix for Saturday, June 1st
Our Pick last week was scratched, so we’ll make up for it this week with something of a bonus. During the week, six 2012 BreezeFigs maidens won during the week (four at Calder, one each at Golden Gate and Parx). In addition, on the day we write this column (Friday) one of the 2-year-olds from the 2013 sales beat another one at Churchill. So the babies are coming along. This week we have a situation where the only two BreezeFigs horses from the 2013 sales that are entered for Friday’s races should really be looked at seriously. And we have one for Saturday as well, so see below and good luck!
Remember to pay attention to two changes we’ve made over the past several years. First, there have been changes in the CLASS EDGE category (at the bottom of the BreezeFigs card) because one sale was eliminated (OBSFEB) and FTFFEB is now in March (FTFMAR), and that moved OBSMAR into a higher class. Also, in the SALE & HIP column: the “HIP” refers to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.
Here are Friday’s Pix:
Churchill Downs, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Brazen Persuasion comes into her debut sporting a four-over-Par, Group 2 profile on the second breeze day at OBSMAR where she posted a 25.27 foot stride length—which was 1.78 feet longer than average that day. She’s a smooth mover and has the right trainer (who gave 210k for her at the sale) and also the right morning line assessment—9-to-5. Key her.
Calder Race Course, 2nd Race, Maiden Claiming ($32,000), 4 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Nicole’s Wildcat posted a four-over-Par Group 2 profile at the same sale as Brazen Princess (see above) but on the first day, and she checked in with a longer stride length—25.37 feet, which was 1.86 feet longer than average for fillies at one eighth that day. But she only garnered 23k on the last bid and that’s why she’s in a claimer. Still, she could be in the hunt, so watch the board.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Churchill Downs, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
This may sound redundant (see Friday’s Pick) but D’cajun Cat, pegged at 2-to-1 in the morning line, is in the same position as Brazen Princess: Same sale, same trainer, 300k price, which was expected following his three-over-Par Group 2 profile that featured a whopping 26.41 foot SL, almost two-and-a-half feet longer than average for colts that day., This is a huge colt and he may need to gather himself because he will need energy for the stretch run, but he could also run away with it. Good luck!