Breeders' Futurity a challenge for handicappers
LEXINGTON, Ky. – Pick a colt, any colt.
It’s not blind luck, like drawing a card, and yet there’s a certain element to the Breeders’ Futurity that might lead handicappers to throw up their hands in frustration after trying to settle on a firm pick.
Indeed, “unwieldy” or “wide open” don’t quite do justice in describing the $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity, a 1 1/16-mile race being run for the 109th time Saturday at Keeneland. A Grade 1 ranking and a Win and You’re In berth into the Nov. 4 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile are partly what enticed the connections of some of the most promising 2-year-old colts on the continent to enter, along with the fact the Juvenile will be run over this same track and distance 27 days hence.
:: Bet Keeneland with confidence! Get DRF PPs, Picks, Betting Strategies, and more.
Forte, winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful, is the 3-1 program favorite as established by Nick Tammaro, the new Keeneland oddsmaker, although neither Tammaro nor anyone else would be totally shocked if a different public choice emerges. Lost Ark, Loggins, and Instant Coffee, rank among the top challengers to Forte, who, like most of the opposition, will be racing around two turns for the first time.
Forte, with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from post 7 for trainer Todd Pletcher, was nearly 7-1 when he splashed home by three lengths in the Saratoga slop in the seven-furlong Hopeful, earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, highest in this field. A $110,000 purchase here last September for Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, the dark bay son of Violence performed as if he would relish more distance, “but you never know until they actually show you they can,” said Pletcher.
Clearly the hope is that he can. Forte was withheld by Pletcher from the Aqueduct entries last week for the one-turn-mile Champagne, won in the slop by Blazing Sevens, with the intent of getting a two-turn race over the Keeneland surface ahead of the Breeders’ Cup being an overriding factor.
Pletcher also is the trainer of Lost Ark (post 10, Flavien Prat), another Violence colt who followed a debut victory going 5 1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park with a 7 1/2-length romp in his only subsequent start, the Aug. 27 Sapling at Monmouth Park going a two-turn mile. This is his first try at a graded race.
If neither of the Pletcher pair will do, there are plenty of alternatives.
Loggins (post 2, Florent Geroux) earned a 90 Beyer in a flashy debut going 6 1/2 furlongs at the September meet at Churchill Downs for Brad Cox, the Eclipse Award-winning trainer of 2020 and 2021. Cox won the Breeders’ Futurity two years ago with two-time champion Essential Quality, the eventual BC Juvenile winner.
Loggins, said Cox, “has a ton of ability, no doubt. This will be a great test to see if we should move on to the Breeders’ Cup with him.
Cox also is the trainer of Instant Coffee (post 5, Luis Saez), who, much like Loggins, won his only start in encouraging fashion, earning an 85 Beyer when going seven furlongs on closing weekend at Saratoga.
Newgate (post 8 John Velazquez), from the powerhouse Southern California barn of Bob Baffert, ships in with two sprints under his belt, the latest resulting in a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.
Fringe contenders include the uncoupled Kenny McPeek pair of Frosted Departure (post 1, Brian Hernandez Jr.), a 9 1/4-length allowance winner last out at Churchill, and Honed (post 3, Julien Leparoux), runner-up in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill three Saturdays ago. McPeek won this race last year with Rattle N Roll.
Longer shots of note include Two Phil’s, a romping winner of the Canterbury Juvenile for Larry Rivelli, along with four last-out maiden winners – Funtastic Again, Red Route One, Good Heart, and Powerful.
In all, 16 are entered, with only as many as 14 allowed to start in a race that begins and ends at what otherwise is the sixteenth pole. The also-eligible Carmel Road is pegged at just 5-1 on the morning line, so he would rate consideration if he draws into the race. Carmel Road was an 8 3/4-length maiden winner in his latest start at Del Mar for Baffert.
Besides the WAYI designation, the Breeders’ Futurity also will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the first five finishers on the new scale of 10-4-3-2-1.
The Breeders’ Futurity, sponsored since 2014 by Claiborne Farm, is the ninth of 11 Saturday races, with post time set for 5:14 p.m. Eastern. It was first run at Keeneland in 1938, when Johnstown, the Derby winner the following spring, emerged victorious. The roster of subsequent winners includes such stars as Whirlaway (1940), Swale (1983), Favorite Trick (1997), and Knicks Go (2018).
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.