Breeders' Cup: As per usual, event crowns many divisional champions

The Breeders’ Cup was designed to be a year-end event where championships are determined, and it succeeded magnificently in that pursuit Friday and Saturday at Keeneland. Just about every major divisional award was decided on the racetrack, most notably Horse of the Year, with Kentucky Derby winner Authentic outrunning top older horses Improbable, Maximum Security, and Tom’s d’Etat, as well as fellow classic-winning 3-year-old Tiz the Law, in a star-studded Classic.

Although there are still a little more than seven weeks remaining in the calendar year, time for a couple of the more opaque divisions to have late-season heroics before Eclipse Award ballots are due right after the first of the year, the majority of the winners are locked in.

Authentic put himself atop the leader board for Horse of the Year, and secured champion 3-year-old male, with his front-running victory in the Classic. He won three Grade 1 races during the year, including the two most important races in which he competed, the Derby and the Classic. Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver are likely to get a smattering of votes, but Authentic’s overall body of work, particularly beating that Classic field, gives him a lopsided edge.

Authentic should be the unquestioned winner of the 3-year-old male title. His only other potential challenger was Tiz the Law, who won the Belmont and the Travers, but Tiz the Law performed poorly in the Classic, giving Authentic a 2-0 edge in their head-to-head meetings in the Derby and Classic.

The Classic result also likely will determine champion older dirt male. Improbable, runner-up in the race, outfinished both of his top challengers for the title, Maximum Security and Tom’s d’Etat. He won three Grade 1 races during the year and owns head-to-head advantages of 2-0 against Maximum Security and 2-1 versus Tom’s d’Etat.

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Monomoy Girl will be an overwhelming choice as champion older dirt female following her victory in the Distaff, completing an unbeaten campaign.

Although Swiss Skydiver ran poorly in the Distaff, nothing she did Saturday was going to detour her from winning the 3-year-old filly title, which she had long ago socked away with a barnstorming campaign that included a victory over Authentic in the Preakness, and four other graded stakes wins.

Gamine was a lopsided winner of the Filly and Mare Sprint, her third Grade 1 victory of the year around one turn, which makes her the logical choice for the female sprint title. She was much best Saturday over Serengeti Empress and Bell’s the One, both of whom own one Grade 1 win for the year. There could be some pushback on Gamine’s candidacy, owing to two medication violations during the year. Both were for excessive amounts of legal medications, both following two-turn races she lost. Both have yet to reach final resolutions.

On Friday, both 2-year-old titles were decided by ontrack performances, too.

Every top contender for the 2-year-old filly title was in the Juvenile Fillies, and Vequist prevailed, so she’s the logical front-runner. There could be some support for the unbeaten Aunt Pearl, who won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, but that was her lone Grade 1 win to two for Vequist, and the dirt winner generally has an inherent edge with voters regardless.

Essential Quality became the leader of the 2-year-old male division with his victory in the Juvenile, completing an unbeaten season that included two Grade 1 wins. There could be some support for Jackie’s Warrior, who also won two Grade 1 races during the year and was a courageous fourth in the Juvenile. But Essential Quality won their only head-to-head meeting and importantly owns two wins around two turns, whereas Jackie’s Warrior lost his only two-turn try.

The three remaining equine divisions – female turf, male turf, and male sprinter – all emerged with leaders following Saturday’s racing, but since only one won a Breeders’ Cup race, they are not as clearly defined.

Of those three, the most secure should be Rushing Fall, who was second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf but captured two Grade 1 races during the year in building up a strong résumé for the female turf title.

Rushing Fall was defeated Saturday by European invader Audarya, but Eclipse voters usually only go for a one-off European winner of a Breeders’ Cup race if they are either a dominant performer overseas, or if there is no worthy candidate among the United States-based runners. Tarnawa, who beat males in the Turf, might be a more viable European candidate than Audarya, as she won two Group 1 races in France prior to the Turf, but Rushing Fall likely will get the plurality of support here.

The one-two finish by females Tarnawa and Magical in the Turf, and shocking upset by Order of Australia to top a 1-2-3 sweep of Aidan O’Brien raiders in the Mile, could leave Turf third-place finisher Channel Maker as the tepid choice as male turf champion. He won two Grade 1 races during the year in a division that failed to produce a standout. Others who are likely to get support include United, who won four Grade 2 stakes but was eighth in the Turf in his only head-to-head meeting with Channel Maker, and Zulu Alpha, who won three graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, and beat Channel Maker in their lone head-to-head meeting in the Mac Diarmida, but missed the Breeders’ Cup with an injury.

Whitmore was a feel-good winner of the Sprint in his fourth attempt to win that race, giving him a strong chance of taking the male sprint title following a seven-race campaign from February through November. There are other worthy candidates in this division, though they had shorter campaigns. Volatile only raced three times, but beat Whitmore in their lone duel in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. Vekoma also missed the Sprint – in which he was the morning-line favorite but subsequently scratched – but he won two Grade 1 races around one turn, the Carter and Met Mile, in an unbeaten, three-race campaign. There might also be late-season support for the fast but unproven Nashville, who won a small stake on the Saturday undercard and is scheduled to have his Grade 1 debut in the Malibu, restricted to 3-year-olds, Dec. 26 at Santa Anita.

Among jockeys, Irad Ortiz Jr. (Golden Pal and Whitmore), Joel Rosario (Vequist and Knicks Go), and John Velazquez (Gamine and Authentic) each won two Breeders’ Cup races, resulting in Ortiz continuing to lead his brethren in purse earnings this year. Velazquez is tops among average earnings per start, and he won the Derby, too. Honorable mention goes to Ron Anderson, agent for Rosario and Velazquez, who won four races. With numerous Grade 1 races in California, Kentucky, and New York still to be contested this year, all of those riders have the opportunity to make a big late-season impression right when ballots go out in mid-December.

No one made a bigger impression last weekend, though, than Brad Cox, who put himself in strong position to win his first title as champion trainer. Cox won four Breeders’ Cup races, including with likely divisional winners Monomoy Girl and Essential Quality. He is second in purse earnings for the year to Steve Asmussen with far fewer starters. Bob Baffert won with Authentic and Gamine, and also trains likely divisional winner Improbable, putting him in the mix as well.

–additional reporting by David Grening