Breeders' Cup Turf wagering strategy

I think four horses can win the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf. TELESCOPE and FLINTSHIRE are high-quality Europeans that deserve to be favorites. MAIN SEQUENCE has won all three of his races in the United States, each a Grade 1, and he, too, can win. The fourth horse is HARDEST CORE, whose price will be higher than the other three, probably double Main Sequence’s and several times greater than the Euros’. I rate Hardest Core having an equal chance to Main Sequence, and while, on bare form, Telescope and Flintshire probably have to be considered more likely winners, the relative prices of the contenders led me to put Hardest Core first, and I plan to bet him to win and use him as an “A” horse in pick-whatever sequences.

I wondered coming here if Hardest Core’s Arlington Million win would be regarded as fluky, and from reading pundits and looking at selections, that seems to be the case. The position is understandable: The gelding never had run in a graded stakes before the Million and has obscure connections. What’s really surprising is that he was 11-1 and not 20-1 in the Million.

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I don’t think his Million win was a fluke: In fact, the guess is Hardest Core, with a nice break after a peak performance, can move forward in the Turf racing at a 12-furlong distance that probably better suits him than the Million’s 10 furlongs. Hardest Core has decent pace, a big turn of foot, and a good mind. He has traveled well here for trainer Eddie Graham and can pull a second straight surprise.

Telescope gets slightly higher standing from these quarters because the Turf has been his goal for several months, where Flintshire just raced 27 days ago in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and was never as certain a runner in this spot as Telescope. Telescope will appreciate getting back to 12 furlongs after racing about 10 furlongs in the International. He likes firm going, gets Lasix, and is not facing any foes as formidable as the last three to beat him: Australia, The Grey Gatsby, and Taghrooda.

Flintshire’s form on good and firm going has no holes, and his second to Treve in the Arc was as good as if not better than any race Telescope has run. That said, Flintshire had good luck in the Arc and ran the race of his life, and regression (which does not mean he can’t still win) seems likelier than progression, or even a repeat performance.

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Where Hardest Core beat BC Turf winner Magician at Arlington, Main Sequence had only to handle the usual American 12-furlong suspects in his two recent wins, and Hardest Core scored a more decisive win over Side Glance at Arlington than Main Sequence did at Monmouth. Main Sequence also is a quirky horse and is in new surroundings for the first time, but his powerful run worked on the Monmouth turf, where closers often become unbalanced angling into the stretch, and he is adaptable enough to this course.

For lower rungs of vertical exotic bets, the mercurial CHICQUITA as well as TWILIGHT ECLIPSE, who enters in career-best form, can be considered.