Breeders' Cup Turf: Foreign talent should feast on the locals

Coverage presented by

LEXINGTON, Ky. – A North American horse last won the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2019. Europeans have won 10 of the last 11. That knowledge will not get you very far in assessing the $5 million Turf.

Sixteen were entered in the Turf, a 1 1/2-mile contest around three turns, and among the 14 horses in the main body of the field, 10 have crossed an ocean to get to Keeneland. Four Americans – priced between 8-1 and 30-1 were entered: Burnham Square at 8-1, Minaret Station at 15-1, Far Bridge at 20-1, and 30-1 Test Score was scratched Wednesday.

An international horse almost certainly wins the Turf. Which one, is the question.

Ethical Diamond won the 2025 Turf in a 27-1 upset.

Benvenuto Cellini won the Irish Derby and finished an excellent third in the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

El Cordobes finished a mildly troubled third in the 2025 Turf but has barely raced since.

Hotazhell exits two Group 1 victories – the second and third of his career – including one of the two most important 1 1/4-mile races in Europe, the Irish Champion.

Johanna Walsh won the Irish Oaks in a romp but came back and laid an egg in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Late-blooming 6-year-old Tiffany finally won a Group 1 two starts ago in Germany and followed it with a decisive score in the Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.

:: ON SALE NOW: DRF Breeders' Cup Packages! Get everything you need to win and save big.

Survie invaded Saratoga this summer and beat leading American males over 1 1/2 miles in the Christophe Clement.

Diamond Necklace won the first six races of her career, including four Group 1s, and finished third last out in the Prix d l’Arc de Triomphe.

Bay City Roller already has had himself an autumn campaign, finishing second in the Arc on Oct. 4 and third in the Champion on Oct. 17.

Deep Monster has never won a Group 1 race at home in Japan but did win a Group 1-level Group 2 when sent on his first international excursion this past February in Qatar.

There are your options – plenty of them.

Aidan O’Brien has trained seven Turf winners and has two chances this year. Diamond Necklace is the 3-1 morning-line favorite, Benvenuto Cellini priced at 6-1, but O’Brien’s leading stable rider, Ryan Moore, pilots Benvenuto Cellini, with Christophe Soumillon on Diamond Necklace. And to hear O’Brien talk this week (and, yes, trainer talk can be cheap), Benvenuto Cellini stands the better chance.

Much hyped at the start of this season, Benvenuto Cellini has been up and down, his campaign further muddied by the Derby at Epsom, where he was soundly beaten but declared a non-starter because he was improperly positioned in the gate. The colt came back to win well in the Irish Derby, and in his first crack against older rivals was beaten by two top-class 12-furlong horses, Kalpana and Calandagan, in the King George. His fifth in the Prix Niel, his Arc prep, was just poor, his ninth in the Arc much better. Benvenuto Cellini broke poorly from an inside post, was slow to find stride, and got buried in traffic the whole trip. He was ninth, but beaten less than five lengths.

“We always thought this race was made for him,” O’Brien said. “We’ve done a good deal with him in the stalls, and he has a nice draw” – post 2 – “so hopefully he’ll get away and have a nice position.”

Diamond Necklace finished two lengths ahead of Benvenuto Cellini in the Arc, her first try at 1 1/2 miles, a distance that stretches her stamina.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP TURF: See DRF’s special section with top contenders, odds, comments, news, and more

“The filly ran a stormer in the Arc,” O’Brien said. “She did quicken to go and win and just got nabbed. Listen, it’s going to be interesting with her. You’re probably really going to have to ride her to get the [distance], where with him, he can be very forward and straightforward.”

Bay City Roller’s schedule – three top-level races on two continents in the span of a month – would be unheard of in America, but connections made that plan months ago and have stuck to it. Found, who won the 2015 Turf, finished ninth in the Arc and second in the Champion at Ascot before coming to Keeneland. There’s a short run to the first Turf turn, and post 13 would be more deleterious if Bay City Roller wasn’t a front-runner. If he breaks alertly, he could take a lead going into that first bend.

Survie nearly won the French Oaks in 2024 and showed solid Group 1 form in 2025 before being sold late that year. Her trainer, George Boughey, said connections had American racing in mind when they bought Survie.

“Those big European tracks might catch her out a little bit, and we thought she could suit racing over here,” Boughey said.

She does. Survie won the sex-restricted Glens Falls on Aug. 2, and 13 days later swept from sixth at the stretch call to first at the wire in the Clement, rallying into a slow pace. Her 10th-place finish in the Prix Vermeille on Sept. 6 can be forgiven, Boughey said. Survie’s saddle slipped just after the start, and jockey Ryan Moore told Boughey he barely could maintain his seat throughout the race.

Ethical Diamond, a one-time jumps horse, doesn’t approach Group 1 level back home in Ireland, which is why trainer Willie Mullins from the start of this year targeted two spots: the Kentucky Turf Cup and this race. Ethical Diamond had a spot of subtly costly trouble at Kentucky Downs and probably comes back to America in roughly the same form as a year ago.

Still, Tiffany defeated him decisively in the Turf Cup. Trained by Mark Prescott, 6-year-old Tiffany showed Group 1 talent years ago but finally broke through with a first top-level victory three months ago in Germany. She probably improved on that race in Kentucky and might improve again. Tiffany’s connections say she thrives on travel; she shipped into a heat wave at Kentucky Downs and came out victorious.

While trainer Joseph O’Brien put Johanna Walsh’s sixth in the Yorkshire Oaks down to wet turf she couldn’t handle, she won a soft renewal of the Irish Oaks. A horse like Hotazhell has far more proven form. Hotazhell is not proven over 1 1/2 miles, but jockey Shane Foley thinks his mount will stay.

“He’s improved so much this year. I don’t think the distance will be a problem for him now,” Foley said.

Charlie Appleby, who has three wins in the Turf, said immediately after El Cordobes returned from an eight-month layoff to finish third Oct. 1 in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic that El Cordobes hadn’t run well enough to merit another Breeders’ Cup try. But connections re-assessed the situation after El Cordobes went back to England.

“I thought he was a bit fitter than he was, but he definitely came forward a good bit from that run,” Appleby said.

Minaret Station won the Joe Hirsch, his first Grade 1 victory. He is an improving 4-year-old with room still to grow. Burnham Square won the Elkhorn here in April with a BC Turf-level performance. He has not come close to that form since, but trainer Ian Wilkes believes Burnham Square wilted in the Kentucky Downs heat last month. Far Bridge, a wonderful horse, is in very tough.

An international horse should win the BC Turf. Which one is the question.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.