Breeders’ Cup Turf: Americans all figure to be big price

An American-based winner of the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland on Oct. 31 will produce a longshot payoff.

European-based runners are expected to dominate the betting in the richest turf race in the United States. As of Wednesday, Golden Horn, the winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp Racecourse in Paris last Sunday, was the consensus 4-5 favorite in future-book betting with British bookmakers.

Flintshire, the runner-up in the Arc and second in the 2014 BC Turf at Santa Anita, was the clear second choice at 5-2.

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The lowest-priced American-based runners are Big Blue Kitten, the winner of the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park on Sept. 26, at 10-1, followed by The Pizza Man at 12-1. The Pizza Man won the Arlington Million on Aug. 17, beating Big Blue Kitten, and was a fast-closing second in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland last Saturday.

Their odds may be a little shorter than that Oct. 31. Both have consistent recent form, but the presence of Golden Horn and Flintshire will inflate their prices to some extent.

In 2014, the American-trained Main Sequence won at a generous 6-1 following three consecutive Grade 1 victories. The Irish import Magician was a 12-1 winner in 2013. Favorites have a dismal recent record in the race, with one win in the last 10 runnings – Conduit at 4-5 at Santa Anita in 2009.

The BC Turf field might include Da Big Hoss, the winner of the $600,000 Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 14. He would join the ranks of American runners at longer odds. Trainer Mike Maker said on Tuesday that he plans to visit with his clients, Skychai Racing, regarding October plans for the 4-year-old Da Big Hoss.

Aside from the BC Turf, Maker said options include the $100,000 Sycamore Stakes at 1 1/2 miles on turf at Keeneland on Oct. 15 and the $1 million Canadian International at Woodbine on Oct. 18.