Breeders' Cup Sprint berth up for grabs in Bing Crosby

DEL MAR, Calif. – The Breeders’ Cup is three months and 100 miles away, which is not too soon, nor too far away, to start dreaming about it on Sunday at Del Mar.

“Right now, it’s okay to dream in Technicolor,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “When we go to write that check for the [Breeders’ Cup] pre-entry, then we dream in black and white. That’s the difference.”

Baffert starts sharp Lord Nelson and 3-year-old speedster Justin Squared in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby on Sunday, a six-furlong sprint with a quality field, including Grade 1 runner-up Subtle Indian, sharp veteran Alsvid, and deep closer Home Run Kitten.

Breeders’ Cup entry fees will be a non-issue for the winner of the Bing Crosby, because the race is a Win and You’re In BC Challenge race for the BC Sprint on Nov. 5 at Santa Anita.

The elimination process for the BC Sprint intensifies in the Bing Crosby, a race that also could influence the complexion of the BC Turf Sprint. Alsvid, the Midwest-based millionaire stabled at Del Mar with trainer Chris Hartman, could switch surfaces.

“I want to try him on the grass,” Hartman said. “That might be a better option for him.”

Alsvid finished next-to-last as a 107-1 outsider in the 2015 BC Sprint at Keeneland. The 2016 BC Turf Sprint, 6 1/2 furlongs on the Santa Anita downhill course, could be perfect for him.

In the meantime, Alsvid figures as a legitimate contender in the Bing Crosby, based on two sharp recent wins at Churchill Downs.

Subtle Indian also figures as a contender, shortening from seven furlongs to six for trainer Robertino Diodoro. Subtle Indian finished second to Lord Nelson last out in the seven-furlong Grade 1 Triple Bend.

“We were stretching it last time,” Diodoro said. “Backing up to three-quarters is going to be a big plus.”

The pace scenario, however, is less beneficial. Subtle Indian is drawn directly outside the front-runner Justin Squared. If those two lock up, here come the closers, including Home Run Kitten.

“There’s a ton of speed in there,” said Home Run Kitten’s trainer, David Hofmans. “We’re going to sit back and make a run. And he loves this racetrack.”

Hofmans entered Bluegrass Bronco to ensure a legitimate pace, but with Justin Squared and Subtle Indian also entered, Hofmans said Bluegrass Bronco was likely to scratch. The other entrants in the expected eight-horse field are Dream Saturday, Indexical, and Kaabraaj.

Bing Crosby, Race 8

KEY CONTENDERS

Lord Nelson, by Pulpit

Last 3 Beyers: 100-100-92

◗ Six furlongs is shorter than Lord Nelson prefers.

“I really think 6 1/2 or seven is probably more of a [suitable] distance for him,” Baffert said. “But he ran pretty fast on the comeback. It’s going to take that to win this.”

◗ Lord Nelson won a six-furlong allowance in 1:07.94 at Santa Anita on June 3, and wheeled back 22 days later to win the Triple Bend.

◗ Flavien Prat takes over for Rafael Bejarano, who rides Baffert-trained American Freedom in the Haskell on Sunday at Monmouth Park.

Subtle Indian, by Indian Charlie

Last 3 Beyers: 99-100-102

◗ Since undergoing minor throat surgery last year to alleviate a breathing issue, Subtle Indian has not run a bad race – six starts this year have resulted in four wins at Oaklawn Park and two runner-up finishes in graded stakes at Santa Anita.

“His last two races, even though he got beat, were his best two races,” Diodoro said. “It’s the best company he has run against, and he showed the most heart and most guts.”

◗ Subtle Indian is high energy, and manageable. “He’s a good feeling horse, but he’s matured a lot,” Diodoro said. “He doesn’t just go over there like a maniac.”

◗ Mike Smith retains the mount on Subtle Indian, and after working him five furlongs last Sunday, Smith told Diodoro’s assistant trainer Sean Williams that the 1:00.60 workout was the best the horse felt since Smith starting working him this summer.

Alsvid, by Officer

Last 3 Beyers: 97-97-98

◗ The 7-year-old is the elder statesman of the Bing Crosby field, in possibly the best form of his career.

“He’s pretty strong right now, and he worked well over the track the other day,” Hartman said.

◗ Drawn outside under Chris Landeros, Alsvid is expected to adopt a stalking trip.

“He can go either way, but we’re not looking to lock him up early,” Hartman said, referring to a pace duel with Subtle Indian. “If they soften him up a little bit, I think it gives us a better opportunity to run him down.”

Justin Squared, by Zensational

Last 3 Beyers: 63-90-90

◗ He breaks from the rail and is expected to set the pace under Martin Pedroza. Baffert said Justin Squared “is ridiculously fast, and he’s run well here,” adding that Justin Squared “worked pretty incredible the other morning. It was a pretty sick work.”

◗ Justin Squared worked 58 seconds from the gate last Sunday, the fastest of 94 works. His sire, Zensational, won the Bing Crosby as a 3-year-old 2009.

Home Run Kitten, by Kitten’s Joy

Last 3 Beyers: 94-91-100

◗ Hofmans and jockey Joe Talamo believe Home Run Kitten prefers the Del Mar surface over Santa Anita, where he finished fourth last time, 2 3/4 lengths behind Lord Nelson.

◗ The track profile compromises Home Run Kitten – 12 of the first 14 races at six furlongs were won by a horse positioned within two lengths of the lead after the opening quarter-mile.