Breeders' Cup Saturday: Once again, internationals could take away home-field advantage

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LEXINGTON, Ky. – North American turf horses did surprisingly well in Keeneland’s first Breeders’ Cup, in 2015. Things have gotten worse for the home team. In 2020, American horses won the three Friday grass races for 2-year-olds, but on Saturday were shut out. And in 2022, only Caravel in the Turf Sprint (Euros second and third) stopped a seven-race international turf sweep.

The morning line has Europeans favored in three of Saturday’s four grass races. In the Turf Sprint, the morning-line favorite, Keeneland-based Bacio, established his credentials overseas, while Ireland-based Comanche Brave stands as a strong second choice.

On dirt, Japan-based Forever Young is the morning-line favorite for the Classic, Japan-based T O Elvis second choice in the Sprint.

Keeneland could be the rest of the world’s oyster Saturday.

Let’s have a look, in reverse race order.

Classic

T O Password at age 3 won twice on right-handed tracks in Japan, but the splits since then are stark: 5-0-0-1 racing right-handed, 4-3-1-0 going left-handed. He’s in the wrong race: T O Password would have been my pick to win the Dirt Mile, where he also was entered. His 2024 Kentucky Derby probably appropriately rates him at 1 1/4 miles in high-level company.

Little needs to be said regarding Forever Young. He’s raced four times in America, won this race a year ago, and instead of prepping in Japan, as was the case before the last two Classics, he prepped at Belmont – a change, if I had to guess, related to the fact Kentucky rather than California hosts this Breeders’ Cup.

We could touch on his two races on the Arabian Peninsula earlier this year. Forever Young clearly loves the surface in Riyadh, where he’s won two $20 million Saudi Cups. His trainer, after he lost to Magnitude in the Dubai World Cup, asserted that Forever Young could not show his best at Meydan. But he did seem to run to form winning the 2024 UAE Derby. In 2025, Forever Young almost certainly bounced in Dubai after winning an epic Saudi Cup battle with Romantic Warrior. Maybe Magnitude just beat him on the square.

Turf

Ethical Diamond returns to defend his crown after a 27-1 blitz last year at Del Mar. You could say on the one hand that the horse has never won above the Group 3 level overseas, and then only once and by a nose. Also worth mentioning – he ran seven times in jump races, and on the flat was campaigned as a handicapper, not a group stakes horse. One might also surmise that he hits a higher level in America than anywhere else – not so much a surmise, but an observation. Forget about his overseas form this year. Like him here or not, the trainer’s objective all season was the Kentucky Turf Cup and this race.

Benvenuto Cellini is a top-of-the-ground horse with two Group 1 performances over 1 1/2 miles, in the Irish Derby and even more so the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth, that say he can win. His King George seems underappreciated. Yes, he got ample weight as a summer 3-year-old meeting older, but victorious Kalpana was at the peak of her capacious powers that day, and runner-up Calandagan – just a half-length ahead of Benvenuto Cellini – was rated the world’s best horse in 2025. Benvenuto Cellini does not care for softer surfaces and, to hear trainer Aidan O’Brien tell it, has for months been aimed at this race. His Prix Niel two back – nothing doing. His Arc last out – much more to like. Benvenuto Cellini broke last, was slow to get into stride, and found himself buried at the back of a 16-runner field and imprisoned behind and inside horses while stuck on the fence. He never threw in the towel, despite the fact his race essentially was lost at the start, and finished only 4 1/2 lengths behind two-time Arc winner Daryz.

El Cordobes, had things evolved differently, might have turned up at Keeneland the horse to beat in the Turf. It seemed like that could be the case after his sparkling third a year ago at Del Mar. But at Doha in February, in need of a break after an overlong campaign, El Cordobes ran flat – and didn’t run again until the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic on Oct. 1 at Belmont. He finished a tepid third after contesting a slow pace, and afterward trainer Charlie Appleby told DRF’s David Grening that El Cordobes hadn’t shown enough to merit another BC Turf try. Appleby said this week that connections sat down, considered the big picture, and changed their mind. El Cordobes, they decided, really needed the Joe Hirsch for fitness and should be coming on now.

Hotazhell is a serious Group 1-level performer – even if he did wipe out a portion of the competition in the Irish Champion. Hotazhell already had been disqualified once this year, in his season’s debut, when he appeared to be looking at something out in front of him and jinked right, running into a rival in deep stretch. He returned for his next start wearing cheek pieces, and while that didn’t lift him immediately, something has boosted the colt to new heights his last two starts. He made all the running winning a German Group 1 two starts ago, and you won’t see a more game performance. He looked beaten by both the second- and third-place finishers, saw them off, and galloped out well in front. In the Irish Champion, he settled beautifully in midpack and along the rail, made a very strong run, and won a head bob. The concern: His last two starts came over 1 1/4 miles, and to date, he’s only proven as a 1 1/4-mile horse.

Some seem to fancy Johanna Walsh – and some might wonder why. No doubt, she’s a firm-ground filly who got the wrong course conditions last out in the Yorkshire Oaks. But her signature victory came in an – all due respect – soft renewal of the Irish Oaks, and the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, where she was a close second, also had little heft behind it. Slightly interesting: Johanna Walsh likes to race on or near the pace, and there’s not much of it in the Turf.

I get the sense Tiffany is not much respected by the English and Irish racing punditocracy. In physical appearance she exists on the opposite pole from “racy,” and it was not until her 19th start, at age 6, that she won a Group 1. Great! Tiffany went off at 7-1 winning her North American debut in the Kentucky Turf Cup and will offer a fair price here. Before the Kentucky Downs start, I watched all of her races and concluded that Tiffany’s talent just needed time – read: years – to marinate, and also that injury interrupted an otherwise steady developmental arc. The mare showed flashes here and there in younger years and literally might not have put everything together until this, her 6-year-old season. And even this year, her patient, careful trainer, Mark Prescott, built her up through the summer into the fall. Her German win two back was better than it looks superficially, and she scored comfortably at Kentucky Downs after shipping like a dream.

Survie beat males in one of North America’s most important 1 1/2-mile grass races, the Christophe Clement, but that performance hardly came out of nowhere. In 2024, she rated as one of the top few 3-year-old fillies in France, and while winless in 2025, she raced competitively three times in high-level Group 1 competition. Sold late in 2025, she moved into the barn of trainer George Boughey, who spent the first part of this season tinkering with the mare, trying to impart a burst of closing speed that would suit American racing, which had been in the plans since Survie was purchased. That’s exactly how she ran in the Clement, closing strongly into a slow pace. Note that until the Dahlia in May, Survie never had raced on a straight course. She’s made for American racing, and in her dud of a Prix Vermeille last out, Survie’s saddle apparently slipped just after the start, leaving her jockey hanging on for dear life.

Based in Ireland, Diamond Necklace, 3-1 morning-line favorite, has made five of her eight starts in France. Typically, it is the second-tier Group 1 2- and 3-year-olds that trainer Aidan O’Brien sends for major French 2-year-old races and the French classics. Diamond Necklace won her first six, and, frankly, beat little before the Nassau at Goodwood. The three horses behind her in her first three Group 1s have since combined for a 24-3-7-4 record, and none has won a group race. Pink Panthera, second by a neck in the French Oaks, is the only real horse she ran against during that span. Friendly Soul won the Group 1 Prix Vermeille in September, but when Diamond Necklace defeated her at Goodwood, Friendly Soul still was finding her footing following a year-plus layoff, and she gave Diamond Necklace nine pounds. Diamond Necklace did get 10 pounds from victorious Daryz in the Arc, but she also lost ground from a wide draw and ran very well. She’s handy and athletic, races from midpack, and while not truly a 1 1/2-mile horse overseas probably can get the trip here.

Bay City Roller beat Diamond Necklace in the Arc and brings the best 1 1/2-mile credentials among the international contingent. The only horse to beat him over 1 1/2 miles in the last year is Daryz, and he is the best 1 1/2-mile horse in the world. Bay City Roller is a free-running, galloping type who will try for the lead from post 13 and has a decent chance to clear the field. He was excellent in the Arc on Oct. 4, very good over a 10-furlong distance short of his best in the Champion on Oct. 17, and now must make by far the longest journey of his life for a third major race in the course of one month. That said, connections have planned this three-race series for months, and in 2015, a filly named Found finished ninth in the Arc, second in the Champion, and first in the BC Turf at Keeneland.

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Deep Monster after his first 27 races did not quality as a top 1 1/2-mile horse in Japan – and then connections sent him out on the road, and even at the advanced age of 8, Deep Monster hit a new level. The H.H. Amir Trophy at Doha in February came up more like a Group 1 than a Group 2, and while Deep Monster got a perfect pocket trip, he also won. In Hong Kong, Deep Monster was finishing right with all-time great Romantic Warrior a furlong out when he got shut off. He pulled too hard in the early stages of his comeback race last out, but that’s just how he runs. Had he not drawn Post 14, Deep Monster might’ve had a chance.

Mile

Lake Forest got his practice run here in the Coolmore Turf Mile on Oct. 3 – inasmuch as one could call any $1.25 million race practice – had a bad trip trying to close into a slow pace, and still ran second. His bankroll’s gigantic because he won a $10 million race in Australia a couple of years ago. He has no speed and in a mile with a legit pace will fall out the back door. No apparent excuse two back at York when Mile favorite Notable Speech spanked him, but with ample pace entered Saturday, expect him to show up late on the scene.

This is probably too much for Japan’s Ask Ikigomi, considering he has made only three starts, never has faced older horses, and hasn’t run since May 10, but who knows how good this colt might be. Last seen in the NHK Mile Cup, Japan’s big turf mile for 3-year-olds, he broke slowly and raced farther back than expected, still coming with a wide, sustained, impressive run through the long Tokyo homestretch, defeated only by Rodeo Drive, who might be a top-class miler himself.

Qirat is better than his 2025 BC Mile but is a legit 30-1 on the morning line. He is, however, a pace factor, a front-runner who has done all his best work leading or pressing the leader – a pace factor for sure if he breaks.

Notable Speech needs no introduction. A fine third in the 2024 BC Mile when not a finished product, he won this race a year ago and should win it again. Zero wrong with his 2026 campaign. He came to Keeneland in April for a Breeders’ Cup test run and went home beaten after an impossibly traffic-filled trip. The horse just does not like Ascot, and after you throw out his Queen Anne there, he looks very much like the horse who won last year’s Mile. Blue Bolt could have beaten him Saturday, but she’s in a different race.

We’ve seen European seven-furlong types like Kinross, third in the 2022 Mile here, run well in this race, but Japan-based Lugal is a different kind of horse – much more a pure sprinter. He nearly won the Group 1 Al Quoz in Dubai, but if you’re looking for links between that straight-course six-furlong race and the two-turn BC Mile, good luck finding them.

True Love, a surprisingly tall filly, has not really improved since she won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May, though she did finally come back to that form capturing the Prix de la Foret last out. Kinross won the 2022 Foret and finished a decent third in this race, and Space Blues won the 2021 Foret before landing the BC Mile. True Love has not come close to Kinross’s best and is even farther from Space Blues – and is not certain to stay this mile.

Puerto Rico struggled all year until the Foret. Considering his wide trip, he ran as well as True Love, and top stable jockey Ryan Moore rides this horse. Puerto Rico, unless he busts out, performs on a lower plane even than Lake Forest, to say nothing of Notable Speech, and while he drops to the rear of the field and makes one run, post 13 still hurts.

Sprint

Even though I’d seen them in April, when handicapping the Churchill Downs Stakes, I went back and reviewed all the T O Elvis replays again, and though I knew what to expect, he still knocked my socks off. The horse is an absolute freak, and a couple of his big wins came with “just keep him out in the parking lot to make sure he doesn’t get in trouble – he’s going to win anyway” trips. He broke sharply and made the lead in his first six-furlong race. Is there a chance he can stick closer than expected to Englishman in the early stages? Looked like in Japan he got knocked around after the start rather than breaking flat-footed.

Filly and Mare Turf

Respect for Red Letter, but she has never won a Group 1 nor come especially close, and with form lines through horses like See The Fire, who came to Canada this fall and lost, we have a strong sense of her baseline – which is just not high enough for her to contend. She’s not a pace factor and don’t expect her to play much of a role.

Jancis is roughly the same horse as Red Letter, is a 5-year-old, and has run 14 times. She did defeat BC Turf runner Survie in the Dahlia earlier this year – when Survie ran one of her worst races ever.

Eccentric won a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Race in her native Chile and was sent to Keeneland-based Wesley Ward to take advantage of it. She might have been moved too early in the May 31 win that earned her a spot in this field, but nearly got run down. Local workout video is, shall we say, not especially encouraging.

Precise rates as one of the two most likely winners, along with Blue Bolt. Easy to forget that when Precise faced elders for the first time in the Falmouth on July 10 she went off at 4-5 after smooth scores in the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coronation at Royal Ascot. Blue Bolt whipped Precise in the Falmouth, and it was really not until the Prix de l’Opera last out that Precise moved forward from her spring and early-summer form. Perhaps not a coincidence that the improvement came with a stretch-out in distance from one mile to 1 1/4 miles, and if you look granularly, you might see Precise just slightly going empty the last 20 yards in the Opera. Cutting back a half-furlong with a shorter homestretch could help her Saturday. She did hug the rail throughout the long turning portion of the Opera, but Christophe Soumillon on victorious Miss Scott beat Ryan Moore on Precise to the punch when the real running started in the homestretch.

Were this race contested at one mile, Blue Bolt would be odds-on. But Blue Bolt has yet to race beyond one mile, nor has she undertaken any long-distance travel, and those are the questions the filly must answer. In terms of quality and peak performance? No one in this field can match her. She’s very aggressive, apparently can be a handful in training – built like an American football linebacker, too. Made a very positive appearance her first two days out training at Keeneland. Watch the Matron at Leopardstown, among all her starts the one that most closely approximates an American race, and you’ll come away thinking she’s not going to lose. Blue Bolt relaxed beautifully while two deep with cover around the long Leopardstown bend and launched one her best runs of the year once turned loose in the homestretch. She hits the line in testing miles with plenty left in her tank. A sodden turf course at Deauville led to her worst showing this year – and she still won.

Dirt Mile

Lord Fons has hit peak form at age 6 but has been at best second or third tier on Japan’s lesser dirt circuit. Probably ran his best race when last seen in June, but did so with a perfect trip. Hard to see.

Turf Sprint

Comanche Brave is a 5-year-old with 14 starts, but only the last five of them – and, most importantly, the most recent – really pertain to this start. Connections pegged this colt as a miler and campaigned him as such until early this year, then discovered they had a crack sprinter. He was thrown to the wolves going to Hong Kong to tackle the world’s fastest sprinter, Ka Ying Rising, on home turf, yet Commanche Brave still won a Group 2 back in Ireland less than one month later. Watch the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee at Royal Ascot and see a horse who went a little flat in the very late stages of a demanding six-furlong contest. Watch the five-furlong Flying Five on Sept. 13 and see a horse who has hit his absolute sweet spot with regard to distance. Bold, bold move through a tight hole in a breathtaking win there. He’ll try to rally from the back of a bulky field Saturday and doesn’t have a lot of homestretch to get there, but this horse has gears, agility, and bravery on his side.

Starlust has taken nine defeats since landing this race in 2024 at Del Mar. He had a lost 2025, and while back on form again this year does not quite seem to have returned to his 2024 peak. He is a one-run deep closer who will be back there with Comanche Brave during the early stages.

Miss Yechance is polar opposite of Comanche Brave and Starlust, a compact speedball that some have called the fastest horse in Dubai this past winter. She knows one way to run, and the jockey will have to use all her speed to get over from post 14. Miss Yechance just hung on going a straight five furlongs last out in the Abbaye, and this poses a sterner challenge.

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