Breeders' Cup Saturday: History in corner of foreign invaders

ARCADIA, Calif. – Eighteen horses – 17 from Ireland, England, and France and one from Japan – were shipped overseas in the last week to start in Saturday’s four Breeders’ Cup turf races. If history is any guide, they will win at least one of them. Not since 2007 at Monmouth Park has the Saturday Breeders’ Cup program passed without an international winner.

So, from Seventh Heaven, the No. 3 horse in Saturday’s first turf race, to Cougar Mountain, the No. 14 in the last of them, here’s a look at the international invaders.

Filly and Mare Turf

SEVENTH HEAVEN wasn’t much of a 2-year-old but has been very good at 3, her lone poor run coming in the Epsom Oaks, a flop that’s excusable because of soft turf.

“The faster the better for her,” was what trainer Aidan O’Brien said Tuesday.

Seventh Heaven’s high-water mark came in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, where she beat the mighty Found, albeit with help from a 10-pound break in the weights, over a course more similar to American racetracks than most in England. But that race and all her best performances have come at 1 1/2 miles, and this fast-playing 1 1/4 miles might not suit her. She has a pacemaker in PRETTY PERFECT, which helps, and while Seventh Heaven was below par last month at Ascot, she took an early bump and was hemmed in for much of the trip. She gets Lasix, but the package would appeal more at higher odds.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2016: Odds, comments, video previews, and more

As a value proposition, QUEEN’S TRUST might be more appealing than Seventh Heaven. The two have traded decisions, and Queen’s Trust has more pace and might better suit 10 furlongs. She was second at the distance to the phenomenal Minding in the Grade 1 Nassau this summer, and trainer Michael Stoute needs no introduction.

The Japanese mare NUOVO RECORD is very good, has earned nearly $5 million, and shouldn’t be overlooked. Her best form is a year old, but even last out in a likely prep, she was not beaten much by the elite Maurice.

Turf Sprint

HOME OF THE BRAVE could suit the race fairly well, though he might prefer a slightly longer distance, and the speed he’s displayed overseas probably won’t place him all that prominently in this race. He’s run well enough around turns and has the merits to be considered.

KARAR was a good early-season 3-year-old of 2015, finishing fourth in the French 2000 Guineas, but then disappeared until last fall and only began to regain top form again in recent months. He was no match last out in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret for Limato (probably the best seven-furlong horse in Europe) but beat everyone else. He can’t be summarily dismissed, though he was a bit lethargic while training Tuesday.

SUEDOIS was a half-length behind Karar in the Foret but lacks the back form of Karar, has had trouble finding the winner’s circle, and rarely has run turns.

WASHINGTON DC has nothing on his fellow travelers save greater questions regarding a distance this long, but he will be a shorter price because of popular connections.

Turf

MONDIALISTE got a free trip and free entry to the Turf when he won the Arlington Million, and his connections, apparently feeling he didn’t suit the Mile this year, took advantage of the offer. There’s little to suggest he will prove competitive with the best horses in this tough race over 12 furlongs.

ULYSSES has no real claim here beyond the Stoute mystique. He comes off a career-best race and will need another one, by some distance, for a top-four finish.

FOUND’s last eight Group 1 or Grade 1 stakes starts produced two wins and six seconds. The wins came in the 2015 BC Turf and the 2016 Arc. What a filly. She did the Arc-Champions Day-Breeders’ Cup triple last year, but that was after a less-taxing run in the Arc and a shorter ship to Kentucky to run over a softer course that she might have appreciated. As remarkable as she is, it will be a little surprising if she’s up to a repeat.

HIGHLAND REEL’s one win this year came in the King George, which lost its favorite, Postponed, to an illness the week of the race and thus was a cut below the best group-level 12-furlong races overseas this year. But if you don’t think Highland Reel on his day can win this race, look back to Hong Kong in December, when he beat Turf favorite Flintshire. He has pace to get position from this wide draw.

Mile

If you watch a replay of ALICE SPRINGS’s win in the Matron two starts ago, you are likely to come away convinced that if things go right, she can win the Mile. She is absolutely a fast-ground filly, and O’Brien believes that even after a long campaign, she’s still improving. She might have won a BC race last fall at Keeneland with better luck.

SPECTRE is a very nice 3-year-old filly owned and trained by a former German soccer star who probably will be found slightly wanting Saturday. She does stand a better chance than DUTCH CONNECTION, HIT IT A BOMB, or COUGAR MOUNTAIN, from whom victory would come as a massive surprise.

Finally, LIMATO has been very well bet overseas for this race and is held in extremely high regard there. You can see he is a bit of a tweener, the five-furlong straight-course races a bit short and a mile – last tried in the Lockinge Stakes – a touch far. The thought is that while he can’t stay a mile on a testing overseas course, he just might at Santa Anita. It is not a bad thought, and Limato is likely to go off at odds higher than his morning line.