Breeders' Cup Saturday: DRF Plus stakes analysis

Breeders' Cup Classic

Mike Watchmaker

MUCHO MACHO MAN ran his best race since his second in last year’s Classic when a dominant winner of the Awesome Again, the local prep for this. Mucho Macho Man clearly loves Santa Anita and is versatile enough to be close early if the situation dictates or lay back if things get too hot up front; taken to score. FORT LARNED edged the pick in last year’s Classic, albeit with the grain of a speed track, and is positioned to improve on his winning prep for this. He wants to ramble early, though, and the pace here has the potential to be very fast. GAME ON DUDE has been the best horse in the U.S. this year but meets his best field since his loss in this race last year; no bargain as the favorite. RON THE GREEK has a giant race in him, as he showed in winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he’s inconsistent.

Mike Welsch

In a race loaded with legitimate contenders, RON THE GREEK should offer value despite a monstrous win last out. Turned in better-than-usual final work prior to shipping west and looked like a million dollars on track Wednesday. Post position the main concern, must stay closer to the pace than in 2012 Classic. PALACE MALICE was no match for top choice in Jockey Club Gold Cup but is a 3-year-old who improves with every start and looked great in his penultimate work at Belmont. GAME ON DUDE is training as well as ever, loves the track, but must deal with speed of Moreno and/or Fort Larned; major player but will be too short a price here. MUCHO MACHO MAN exits his best yet over local strip and should get perfect trip behind the speed. Flat Out looking great on track; will offer value, but must overcome tough post.

Breeders' Cup Mile

Mike Watchmaker

WISE DAN did not run up to his standards when second last time in the Shadwell, a race that was switched late because of rain from turf to a Polytrack surface he has run big on in the past. However, Wise Dan has been too good for too long to not be given another chance, and should rebound considering the projected contested early pace sets up well for him. NO JET LAG upset the local prep at the distance over the course. He is now 2 for 2 in the U. S. A hot pace would also help his late kick. OLYMPIC GLORY romped in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot last time out. But he’s running back in only two weeks, and the fear is that might be too quick. The improving HE BE FIRE N ICE turned in yet another solid effort when second in the local prep. Merits respect.

Dave Litfin

OLYMPIC GLORY looked like star running back Adrian Peterson, rating kindly in blinkers and shouldering through holes in the recent QE II at Ascot, after which trainer Richard Hannnon’s son and assistant said he “came out better than we could have hoped.” He is a group stakes winner on five courses in England and France and lost by a nose to top-class Moonlight Cloud (4 for 4 in 2013). WISE DAN returns to scene of his course-record triumph on virtually the same schedule as last year, except the Shadwell Mile was switched to rain-soaked synthetic and his win streak ended after being floated very wide early chasing Silver Max. Silver Max will not get a similarly easy lead drawn inside last year’s pacesetter Obviously, thus the reigning Horse of the Year may trip out nicely. BRIGHT THOUGHT briefly held the world record improving to 3 for 3 over the course winning San Luis Rey. Never a backward step figure-wise. NO JET LAG missed Wise Dan’s record by .06 of a second and is now 2 for 2 in the United States.

Breeders' Cup Sprint

Mike Watchmaker

PRIVATE ZONE made it 2 for 2 since returning from Dubai when winning the Vosburgh last time. He has shown repeatedly to be very quick early and very game, and might even be better than he appears on paper because he tends to wait on his opposition before re-engaging. He likes the track, and can be the main speed if he chooses. SECRET CIRCLE recently returned from an 18-month absence to win an allowance race at the distance over the track. And though it was over softer company, he won in fast time and did not appear to be doing his best. He has back class and is intriguing. GENTLEMEN’S BET’s last two starts can be forgiven. One was on Polytrack and in the other he was needlessly involved in an early duel. His prior Beyers are competitive. JUSTIN PHILLIP was narrowly beaten by Private Zone in the Vosburgh. In sharp form, but might get shuffled too far back early.

Mike Welsch

SECRET CIRCLE always appeared cut out to be a top-class sprinter, and he is back in his proper element. Asking a lot of him to win a Breeders’ Cup race with only one start in 18 months, but he couldn’t have looked any sharper in his final work for the Sprint and should sit a nice trip stalking what figures to be a hotly contested pace. PRIVATE ZONE is in peak form but is among a number of front-running types and may have to prove he can rate off leaders. JUSTIN PHILLIP has never been better. Ran against the track bias when narrowly beaten in the Vosburgh, and with right running style, he would have been top choice had he not drawn inside post. TRINNIBERG is winless since capturing this race in 2012 but might outrun his odds again.

Breeders' Cup Turf

Mike Watchmaker

POINT OF ENTRY was best when second in this race last year and was terrific winning both of his starts this year. Point of Entry has been away since June because of injury, and it is highly uncharacteristic of his connections to not only come back in a spot like this, but to also ship across country to do it. He’s the best here on his day and is taken to return a winner. BIG BLUE KITTEN was unlucky to be nosed in the Joe Hirsch after a bit of traffic trouble into the stretch. He is much improved and dangerous. INDY POINT tackles much better here, but was visually impressive winning the local prep over the course. LITTLE MIKE was always a front-runner, yet he won this race last year and the Joe Hirsch by rating; contender.

Byron King

THE FUGUE, a troubled third in last year’s Filly and Mare Turf when boxed in for much of the race, has won two consecutive Group 1’s and is at her best on firm turf, the conditions expected Saturday; proven at 1 1/2 miles and has already defeated males. REAL SOLUTION has been on the board in three straight Grade 1’s; consistently posts promising speed figures. INDY POINT rebounded from a dismal effort in the Arlington Million to win the John Henry Turf Championship on this course in fast time, albeit over a modest group. LITTLE MIKE narrowly won the Joe Hirsch at Belmont to notch his first victory in five starts since scoring in this race last year; impressed by how he adapted to the presence of other speed that day, rating kindly in fifth.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Mike Watchmaker

TAP IT RICH only recently won his racing debut, and with the aid of a fast early pace to rally into. Nevertheless, he impressed while overcoming a slow start and a three- to four-wide trip, notably around two turns, and over the track. With only a few possible exceptions, this is not an imposing Juvenile field, and Tap It Rich has every license to take a significant step forward second time out. NEW YEAR’S DAY also comes off only a maiden win but over subsequent FrontRunner winner Bond Holder; sharp works over the track. HAVANA has the field’s best Beyers and was fast and game in winning the Champagne. But that had to be a draining effort stretching out from 5 1/2 to 8 furlongs, and he might take a step back stretching out to a route. He also drew a tough post. BOND HOLDER won his maiden in the FrontRunner but over suspect company.

Dave Litfin

This race is usually won on or near lead. HAVANA might get desired position, despite a wide draw, given a lack of early speed other than turfer Diamond Bachelor. He relaxed tracking from rail in Champagne, held off Honor Code, and galloped out strongly. Mirrors Pletcher-trained Uncle Mo, who ran similar figures on similar schedule before a 108 Beyer in 2010 Juvenile. MEXIKOMA freaked with turf-to-dirt switch and blinkers on to bury maidens, earning what was the nation’s top juvenile two-turn Beyer. Considered for Nashua at Aqueduct, but all systems appear go. TAP IT RICH appears to be the most promising local runner after overcoming trouble in good debut; ambitious task second out. NEW YEAR’S DAY flattered by Bond Holder; sharp works here.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Mike Watchmaker

Past downhill-course success was important in the three Turf Sprints run at Santa Anita, and no one here has a better downhill record than MIZDIRECTION. She was 2 for 2 on the downhill before she won this race last year and has since added two more downhill stakes scores. She’s been off since June but by design, as she won last year off a slightly longer layoff. JERANIMO will love getting back on turf, and I like the cutback in distance. The big drawback: He has no downhill experience. RENEESGOTZIP was third in this last year in her only turf start, and while she loves Del Mar, her two wins there this year suggest she is even a better horse now; also intentionally fresh. UNBRIDLED’S NOTE, second in this last year, is poised to improve on his third in the Eddie D, as he was coming off a layoff, but is marooned in the 14 hole.

Dave Litfin

Top three from 2012 Turf Sprint and top four from last month’s Eddie D closely matched on paper. Trying again with UNBRIDLED’S NOTE, 2012’s narrowly beaten favorite from post 13, who moves one stall wider after good finish between horses and strong gallop-out off bench. Defending titlist MIZDIRECTION is perfect on the downhill course, delivering her two fastest figures when fresh. CHIPS ALL IN edged Unbridled’s Note and fast-closing BOAT TRIP with a perfect stalking trip in Eddie D; only loss on this course was by a nose to the choice. Synthetic specialist Reneesgotzip was a close third vs. top two as a 3YO; may be even better now, but gets no easy lead vs. Tightend Touchdown.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Mike Watchmaker

DANCE CARD was already up against it last time in the Gallant Bloom coming off a 10-month injury-related absence, but things got worse when she broke slowly and raced wide on a track where the rail was gold. She should improve a ton off that third-place finish and perhaps get back to the form she showed a year ago when she looked like a very serious horse in the making; can score at a price. DANCE TO BRISTOL also raced against the strong bias when second in the Gallant Bloom and won seven straight before that; logical contender. GROUPIE DOLL romped in this race last year and is terrific when on her game. The trouble is, her three performances this year say she doesn’t have her best game now. SWEET LULU was game when second in the Cotillion and winning the Test two back. She faces tougher, but the turnback in distance suits.

Byron King

DANCE TO BRISTOL could slip through the wagering cracks, without big-name connections and having trained out of sight for the BC at Bowie Training Center. She won seven in a row, capped by the Grade 1 Ballerina, before a second last out in a swiftly run Gallant Bloom. Champion GROUPIE DOLL, who romped in this race last year, has lost two of three since returning from a long layoff. She should move forward going from Polytrack to dirt, but given her current form, her reputation makes her an underlay at 5-2 odds or less. Late-running BOOK REVIEW came within a head of the top choice when second in the Ballerina. She should fire fresh off a steady diet of promising works. SWEET LULU lost for the first time when second in the Cotillion after winning her first four starts, including the Test.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Mike Watchmaker

LAUGHING has been living right this season with two soft-trip wins (the Flower Bowl and Diana), and a bias-aided score (the Ballston Spa). But she’s also undefeated this year, and much improved, and is the absolute lone front-runner in this field. Laughing showed she can handle 10 furlongs with the right trip in the Flower Bowl; one more time. DANK’s European form was good, not great, but she could not have been more impressive winning the Beverly D. in her U. S. debut. But that was 2 1/2 months ago and she hasn’t raced since, and that’s a little unsettling even if she is in top hands. ROMANTICA’s Euro form is pretty much on a par with Dank’s, and in view of what Dank did at Arlington, she merits respect. MARKETING MIX hasn’t seemed as sharp this year as she was last year, but should get a great trip tracking Laughing early.

Byron King

ROMANTICA finished seventh in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp on Sept. 15 and is encouragingly shipped over to America for the Filly and Mare Turf – an indication her connections are treating that race as a toss-out because she did not handle the soft ground. She showed high quality in France this year, winning a pair of races, including a Group 1. Well suited to 1 1/4 miles and firm turf. DANK was awesome in winning the Beverly D. in August, but will likely be overbet off that blowout victory. Suspect she will drop below her 5-2 morning line, a short price on a horse unraced since the summer. MARKETING MIX, last year’s Filly and Mare Turf runner-up, and TIZ FLIRTATIOUS are seemingly the top turf mares in the United States and little separates the pair, who have traded head decisions in a two matchups this year.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

Mike Watchmaker

ARTEMIS AGROTERA was fortunate in her Frizette win. Sweet Reason lost ground by ducking in sharply after the start, and was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths. Still, Artemis Agrotera was good enough to capitalize, which speaks well of her. Most importantly, her natural but ratable speed should play well around two turns, and on the main track at Santa Anita; taken to repeat. SWEET REASON was obviously best in the Frizette, and impressed winning her first two starts, including the Spinaway. She might be more than a closing sprinter, but one-turn closers aren’t automatic going long. UNTAPABLE caught an opponent who just couldn’t stay the trip in the Pocahontas, but still showed substance successfully stretching out to 8 1/2 furlongs off a 2 1/2-month layoff. SHE’S A TIGER just failed in the Chandelier after trying to put the race away on the far turn; yet to run a bad one.

Dave Litfin

Western-based fillies have historically had an edge when this race is at Santa Anita, but the locals seem unexceptional this year. UNTAPABLE handled an 11-week layoff to win the Pocahontas stretching out first time against winners, and got a schooling taking dirt inside before easing out wide to best a favorite coming off a blowout debut win; her dam, a Grade 2 turf router, produced Paddy O’Prado, a five-time graded stakes winner on turf, whose fastest races were the Kentucky Derby and BC Classic. ARTEMIS AGROTERA has won twice from inside posts, although she benefited from mud lark SWEET REASON’s early misfortunes in the Frizette, and must deal with mid-race pressure from She’s a Tiger. The latter opened up through a slow fourth quarter in the Chandelier, but couldn’t hold off SECRET COMPASS (tardy changing leads). Concave may take to dirt at a price.