Breeders’ Cup Saturday 2023: Free picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers
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Mike Beer’s Saturday Breeders’ Cup analysis
Dirt Mile
CODY’S WISH looks well-spotted to defend his Dirt Mile title after overcoming a slow pace when turned back to a sprint in the Vosburgh last month. His attempt to cement his status as the top handicap horse did not work out in the longer Whitney, but he has now won seven straight at one mile or less. STAGE RAIDER was cut out to be a good one, but has been derailed by layoffs. He is a handy sort and capable of an explosive run when things go his way, and he should be a fair price. ZOZOS is capable of a fast race, and his early speed makes him dangerous. He took advantage of a soft pace when defeating Stage Raider in his prep for this.
Filly and Mare Turf
The 3-year-old WARM HEART has put a strong combination of handy speed and tenacity on display while winning five of her last six on the way into this, including a couple of Group 1s recently going longer. She has won both prior starts over this distance and still has forward to go. WITH THE MOONLIGHT prefers firm ground, which she has not raced over since her fine second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley more than six months ago. This may not be her best distance, but she has talent and has learned to rate as a 4-year-old. The added distance is the question in front of INSPIRAL as she has never been beyond a mile in a stellar 12-race career. The five-time Group 1 winner was better than ever in the Sun Chariot last time. If not for being pace-compromised in the Grade 1 New York in June, DIDIA would be undefeated in North America. Her connections had a good plan shipping west for a spin over the course and distance last month.
Filly and Mare Sprint
GOODNIGHT OLIVE has made few mistakes over the course of her career and appears to be well-spotted to defend her Filly and Mare Sprint title following a career-best effort behind Echo Zulu in her final prep. This is her distance, and she can get any kind of trip. KIRSTENBOSCH would likely need the top one to get involved early with the speedy Society in order to have her best chance, though she is a reliable closer and can take advantage if the situation presents itself. Kirstenbosch has gained ground through the stretch in all six of her prior starts over sprint distances, including a Grade 3 victory last time out. SOCIETY owns dangerous speed and enters this off of back-to-back Beyer tops. She won’t be coming back if able to shake loose early. MATAREYA was a Grade 1 winner last year but is flying under the radar a bit as a 4-year-old. She did defeat Goodnight Olive in May but trips made the difference that day.
Mile
KELINA did not get a great trip two back when not fully clear for the late stages but broke through with a sharp Group 1 win in the Foret and took a pretty big scalp in the process with 10-time winner Kinross behind her. The progressive filly quickens impressively and prefers firm ground. MORE THAN LOOKS finishes strongly without fail, whether there is pace for him to attack or not. He is way up in class after running down a weaker field of 3-year-olds with a triple-digit Beyer in that last one, but he might be this good. SONGLINE’s last three starts over this distance have resulted in three Grade 1 victories, and she got a bit unlucky when falling just short in her prep for this going longer. She packs a strong late kick if she can get into position for the stretch run. The form of CASA CREED’s two distance wins at Saratoga hasn’t held up well, though that doesn’t diminish his overall accomplishments. He remains underrated, but this is much tougher.
Distaff
CLAIRIERE appeared to be as good as ever while taking back-to-back Grade 1s earlier this year, then was pace-compromised while facing only three others in the Shuvee. She appeared to dislike the wet track when a no-show in the Personal Ensign for the second straight year. She is a threat to bounce back in the Distaff once again. ADARE MANOR finally gets a tougher test after pulling easy trips versus short fields all year. She has something to prove but was cut out to be a good one before getting derailed as a 3-year-old and is finally back on track. I don’t think this is the distance SEARCH RESULTS prefers, but she matches up well on talent and can fall into the right trip if the pace gets competitive. IDIOMATIC currently sits atop this division after pairing up Grade 1 wins in her last two starts, though she never faced a challenge in those races and is likely to have to work harder this time. She commands respect.
Turf
ONESTO is not one of the big-name Europeans in this loaded Turf field, though he is a prior Group 1 winner over this trip and exits a career-best effort in the Arc last month at a big price. He was no threat to AUGUSTE RODIN two back in the Irish Champion – a race he also ran very well in last year – though he did not wind up in a great spot in the late stages of that race. Auguste Rodin has confounded with a couple of no-show efforts along the way, but he is special when in the mood. Firm ground is his preference, and he produced a high-class performance when bouncing back in the Irish Champion, albeit with a perfect trip. KING OF STEEL and MOSTAHDAF are two additional high-class shippers adding to the stellar Turf cast. King of Steel made Auguste Rodin earn his Epsom Derby victory, and he has improved since.
Classic (DRF Race of the Day)
PROXY has yet to win over the Classic distance, though he made a determined run to just miss in his prep for this and also ran an underrated race in the Big Cap when shipped out here earlier this year to get the lay of the land. He needs his best from the far outside but will be a price. I suppose distance is the final obstacle for WHITE ABARRIO to overcome after running the two best races of his life in his first two starts for this trainer. His Whitney was a tour de force, and he will be hard to beat if he can repeat it after three months off. ZANDON wins infrequently, and he also has the distance question to answer, though he has the advantage of having earned triple-digit Beyers in seven straight races over fast dirt. ARABIAN KNIGHT has the most raw talent in the field, and he handled the distance last time despite facing some pace pressure. He is tough if moving forward one more time, but there is quality speed to his inside.
Turf Sprint
I prefer speed in these short sprints on grass, and NOBALS has plenty of it, though he can still turn in a top effort if he has to sit just off the lead, as he did in his final prep. He brings strong form into this and should be involved from the start. ROSES FOR DEBRA gets a pass for that last one over a boggy course that she clearly did not care for. She is a powerful finisher who possesses handy speed and is a threat to bounce back at a fair price. BIG INVASION rallied to score going six furlongs in his prep for this, though he handled this distance earlier in his career and is a strong finisher when he can work out a clean run. He got unlucky in a couple of major races for this division before an ill-advised trip to Royal Ascot on short rest in the summer.
Sprint
ELITE POWER took the worst of it in a moderately paced Grade 1 last time and saw his eight-race winning streak come to an end. He lost nothing in defeat that day and is the horse to beat as he looks to go back-to-back in the Sprint, this time in a race that projects to be run to suit him. DR. SCHIVEL took a tough beat in this race two years ago. He missed a lot of time shortly thereafter but has picked up right where he left off this year. He loves this track. GUNITE finally got the better of Elite Power last time when able to dictate terms on a rated pace. The tractable colt cuts back and has a perfect outside post. AMERICAN THEOREM entered this race in career-best form last year before failing to threaten Elite Power. He hasn’t managed to get much of a campaign going in 2023 but can kick on late at a big price if some pace develops.
Steve Andersen and Marcus Hersh discuss this year's international contenders for Saturday at Breeders' Cup 2023. ">Watch here.
Dan Illman’s Saturday Breeders’ Cup analysis
Dirt Mile
CODY’S WISH likely found nine furlongs a bit too far when facing Classic contenders White Abarrio and Zandon, but he rebounded nicely when cutting back in the Vosburgh. Off slowly, as is his habit, he pulled his way forward to track a slow pace four wide, then made a three-path bid on the turn and was way too good for that field at odds-on. His break is a worry, but the defending winner should be running hard in the stretch. CHARGE IT sheds blinkers after an even try in the Woodward, and it’s worth noting he popped a 111 Beyer without them earlier in his career. This turnback in distance works well for him. SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING enjoyed an easy front-running trip when taking the Charles Town Classic over the summer. He’s an underrated colt with the tactical speed to sit a good trip. Keep an eye on ZOZOS, who set easy fractions when winning the Ack Ack. He might get brave on the lead.
Filly and Mar Turf
INSPIRAL looked strong winning the Sun Chariot as she tracked in between, altered down to the far-side rail with three furlongs remaining, and then won as she pleased. She’s a brilliant miler trying 10 furlongs, but she finishes her races powerfully for superstar connections and appears to have enough pedigree to handle the added yardage. WARM HEART bested next-out French Group 1 winners Blue Rose Cen and Sea Silk Road when overcoming a stumbling start to take the Prix Vermeille. While she is turning back to 1 1/4 miles after a Group 1 double at 12 furlongs, she’s unbeaten in two tries at the distance and seems equally adept on firmer footing. IN ITALIAN, like the top pick, is stretching out in distance, but she has the speed to control the issue. She tried to sneak away through a quick third quarter in 23.32 last time at Keeneland and was just nabbed in the shadow of the wire. Very dangerous if allowed to coast on easy fractions.
Filly and Mare Sprint
GOODNIGHT OLIVE was freshened after earning a career-best 108 Beyer when second to star filly Echo Zulu in the Ballerina. She pushed that one’s moderate fractions, couldn’t step with her in the stretch, then hopped back to her left lead. She should get pace to attack and might revert to the stalking tactics that worked well for her last year. SOCIETY is very dangerous with the speed to be on or near the lead. She walked the dog on the lead in a two-turn sprint at Charles Town last time, but can stay close if the pace is quicker and should be in the thick of things when they turn for home. MATAREYA beat the top pick over this distance at Churchill Downs and might not have cared for wet footing in the Ballerina. She tried to push the pace from the rail, settled into the pocket, and then couldn’t sprint home with them. She might receive a better race flow. KIRSTENBOSCH runs late at a nice price.
Mile
In the Prix de la Foret, KELINA stalked slightly off the rail, saved ground in midpack turning into the straight, looked strong on hold in behind horses, altered inside, and was an upset winner over classy Kinross (next-out second in the Group 1 British Champions) and next-out French Group 3 winner Exxtra. There’s a chance she’s better on that sort of soft going, but she has won on firmer ground. Hoping she gets covered up and relaxes in the early part. MORE THAN LOOKS is a progressive 3-year-old who boasts a powerful late kick. He got the right trip and setup in the Jefferson Cup as he settled outside at the back, advanced as the leaders sprinted for the wire, swung widest, and ran them down. We’ll learn more about him as this is, by far, the strongest class test of his career. GINA ROMANTICA got a late start to 2023, but was a likeable winner of the First Lady over speedy/classy stablemate In Italian, who had things her way up front.
Distaff
SEARCH RESULTS has some back races that would make her competitive in the Distaff, and she exits a solid prep in the Locust Grove, albeit a race where there wasn’t much going on behind her. She bounced right to the lead, was pressured by the runner-up, and then drew away under a drive to beat a couple of these. She doesn’t need the lead to win and might find a comfortable tracking position behind the expected quick splits. Stablemate RANDOMIZED came to form at Saratoga and enters following three gate-to-wire triumphs. She had everything her own way in a watered-down Beldame last month and might face a stronger pace flow than she’s ever seen. Still, you have to respect her upside potential as a lightly raced 3-year-old. IDIOMATIC is a hulking filly seeking her fifth consecutive victory. She took no prisoners in the Spinster, clearing off to an easy lead and kicking strong in the stretch. I’m worried about the possibility of an early duel.
Turf
KING OF STEEL achieved an elusive Group 1 triumph in the Champion Stakes as the bruising gray colt broke a beat slow, then settled along the rail at the back. He found his way to the far outside in the straight, then grinded them down over testing going. Auguste Rodin has had his number thus far, so he’ll have to get that monkey off his back here under Dettori. AUGUSTE RODIN is an obvious contender after sweeping the Epsom and Irish derbies earlier this year. He appreciates this sort of firm ground and got back on the beam in a nice way in the Irish Champion in late summer. He sat a lovely tracking trip in that race, then stayed on beautifully to deny all late challengers. MOSTAHDAF has won at 12 furlongs in the past and stretches back out to this trip after a front-running win over a quality field in the Juddmonte International. Versatile from a running style standpoint, he runs well fresh and likes firm going.
Classic
WHITE ABARRIO didn’t have the easiest trip when third in the Metropolitan Handicap, then turned in a breakthrough performance when dominating the Whitney. He prompted outside, then went on the attack on the second turn and sprinted home in eye-catching fashion. He’s been given plenty of time to recover while acclimating to Santa Anita and is a tactical sort who can sit behind the speeds from stalking range or midpack. SAUDI CROWN is a late-developing 3-year-old who is two noses away from being undefeated. Took tough beats in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy, but splashed to an easy lead in the Pennsylvania Derby before holding sway. Must deal with a longer distance and a tougher pace scenario. DREAMLIKE is still eligible for a two-lifetime race, but he’s multiple graded placed and gave a good try against Saudi Crown. He settled inside near the back, altered to the center of the track, and ran on late. He’ll get the right setup as he is tested for class. CLAPTON and SENOR BUSCADOR are late-runners to consider at huge prices.
Turf Sprint
MOTORIOUS was a nice-looking winner of the Green Flash at Del Mar over the summer. He settled outside in midpack, swung to the far outside turning for home, and then stormed by them in the final three-sixteenths. He handled two next-out winners in that spot, and it appears the four-month freshening last spring did him a world of good. JASPER KRONE showed high speed in the Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama before faltering late. That was a six-furlong race, and he might appreciate a sharp five-eighths over firm ground. Expect him to be Quarter-Horsed out of there to get forward position. Don’t count out ARZAK, who worked a nice inside-out stalking trip from behind a lively pace to upset Keeneland’s Woodford. He has back class and is slowly rounding into his best form. BIG INVASION needs to work out a trip from the rail, but he kicks hard given enough pace to work with.
Sprint
Guessing with HOIST THE GOLD after the colt received a beautiful ride from John Velazquez to post a career-best Beyer in the Phoenix. Prompted a three-ply pace from the rail, eased back to sit off the leaders entering the turn, came with a three-wide bid, and dug in with grit to prevail. This is obviously a much tougher spot, but he has the tactical speed to work out a trip from close to the pace. SPEED BOAT BEACH gets extra points for running so well in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship as it was his first start following a 300-day layoff. Pressed that reasonable pace from the outside, then gave it his all against a rail-skimming winner. Wonder if he’s sharper with that race under his belt, and he drew a lovely attack post position. DR. SCHIVEL pushed the pace from the rail in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, cut the corner, and stayed on gamely. He is a tough, tough horse who should be forwardly placed from the opening bell.
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Kenny Peck’s Breeders’ Cup pick six play for Saturday
RACE 6: SONGLINE (#10) is easy to like, based on her last three Timeform Ratings, and she will be very tough in the BC Mile if she runs to her best races in her U.S. debut. But MASTER OF THE SEAS (#14) merits much respect – despite his outside post – as he turned in a pair of sharp efforts since shipping in for the Woodbine Mile in September. He will be rolling late. (2)
RACE 7: CLAIRIERE (#9) just missed in this race last year, and though she didn't run well when last seen she can be forgiven for that dull effort in the Personal Ensign, run over a sloppy track at Saratoga. She should be well positioned to make the last run as there's a fair amount of speed in this 2023 BC Distaff. (1)
RACE 8: MOSTAHDAF (#9) has won three of his last four starts and comes into the BC Turf off the two best efforts of his career. He has shown that he can stay close if need be, and that versatility should enable him to work out a favorable trip. AUGUSTE RODIN (#5) makes his U.S. debut in this Breeders’ Cup for trainer Aidan O’Brien, which makes him a threat by default. His latest Timeform Rating puts him on the short list of contenders. KING OF STEEL (#11) was a length behind Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes in Ireland two back and returned to win in game fashion in the Champion Stakes in his latest. SHAHRYAR (#1) may be good enough, if he can run to his best races. (4)
RACE 9: Japanese import USHBA TESORO (#8) could well hold the edge on this BC Classic field. He’s won six straight, including the Dubai World Cup two back and his latest off a six-month break, and 7 of 8 starts overall on the dirt, with his only loss coming on a sloppy strip. He's training well for this, and though he'll be looking to make the last run there does seem to be ample pace to set him up. (1)
RACE 10: ROSES FOR DEBRA (#9) comes off a loss in the Turf Monster, but she didn't have much chance to close in that paceless race, run over a very soft grass course. Her prior Beyers are good enough, and she can surprise in the BC Turf Sprint given a clean trip. LIVE IN THE DREAM (#5) was off the board but very game in defeat in the Woodford, a race featuring several speeds and thus one that set up very well for the closers (Note the inverted "C" in the DRF past performance line). He is perhaps the one to catch. NOBALS (#7) has some speed of his own and will be prominent from the start, an edge if the fractions are on the mild side. (3)
RACE 11: SPEED BOAT BEACH (#7) might be the main speed in the BC Sprint, which oddly doesn't boast all that much early zip. He was game in defeat in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship and has worked well in the interim. GUNITE (#9) is in great form for trainer Steve Asmussen, and he's versatile enough to stay close or come from off the pace. He could fall into a perfect trip if the top pick is unable to get clear in the opening stages. ELITE POWER (8) is the defending BC Sprint champ and has been training splendidly toward this return. DR. SCHIVEL (#2) draws inside and comes off a game score in his return from a break. He is dangerous if he can run back to that effort. (4)
The Play: 10, 14 / 9 / 1, 5, 9, 11 / 8 / 5, 7, 9 / 2, 7, 8, 9 = $96 ticket
Ashley Mailloux and Mike Beer handicap the Breeders’ Cup Saturday late Pick 5. ">Watch here.