Breeders' Cup Mile wagering strategy
TORONADO spent the summer hanging out with all the cool kids in Europe.
He started the year by winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, then finished second to the mighty Kingman in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, and was second by just a head to the late-season upstart Charm Spirit in the Prix du Moulin de Longhchamp in Paris.
Those results have made him a deserving favorite in Saturday’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita.
But it has not necessarily made him a single selection in many bets in a race that unfortunately does not include the two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, who is sidelined by an injury.
Toronado certainly is capable of winning the BC Mile, but the field he faces merits respect in a race that frequently comes down to the luck of a trip.
Toronado, who will be ridden by English champion jockey Richard Hughes, should have a clean trip. He tends to race near the pace, avoiding much of the trouble that could plague a closer. The 4-year-old colt used that style to win the Group 1 Sussex Stakes in 2013 and the Queen Anne Stakes this year.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions and odds
But can he hold off the late kick of such capable runners as the dangerous stalker TOM’S TRIBUTE, the darling of Del Mar; the improving TRADE STORM, who won the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in September; SEEK AGAIN, who seems to finds more trouble than a late-night drunk; or a cagey frontrunner such as OBVIOUSLY, the winner of the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on this course back in June?
The presence of those runners allows for a more diverse range of bets.
Tom’s Tribute, who will be ridden by Mike Smith, is a threat with a wide stretch run. He was unbeaten in two stakes at Del Mar – the Grade 1 Eddie Read Stakes over 1 1/8 miles on turf July 20 and the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile on Aug. 24, closing from three and five lengths, respectively, to win each race. He merits respect as an alternative to the deserving favorite.
Trade Storm, trained in England by David Simcock, has erratic form. Before the Woodbine Mile, he was beaten in lesser races at Haydock and York Racecourses in England during the summer.
Seek Again was beaten a neck by Wise Dan in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill Downs in May and has one victory in three subsequent starts. With his best effort, he can win, but the trip is vital.
Then there is SUMMER FRONT, the king of the second-place finishes. At the least, he is a candidate to fill out the exacta. With the right circumstances, he can win. He likes firm turf, which should be in place Saturday.
For race bets, one approach is to include Tom’s Tribute with Toronado in exactas and as key selections in trifectas with Trade Storm, Seek Again, and Obviously, filling out the second and third places on tickets. Tom’s Tribute has appeal in the old-fashioned win pool. After all, he should be 10-1 or higher.