Breeders' Cup Mile: Upsets cloud picture

If you were looking for clarity in the Breeders’ Cup Mile three weeks out from the race – well, keep on peering into the fog.

In the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile on Oct. 6 at Keeneland the top three betting choices finished fourth, eighth, and 11th. Next Shares, a 23-1 shot, came through a gaping hole along the rail at the top of the stretch and powered home to win by 4 1/2 lengths. “Powered” probably is the wrong word. Over a course rated good, it took Next Shares almost 24.75 seconds to run his final quarter-mile, a relative eternity by top-class turf-mile standards.

:: Breeders’ Cup Challenge: Results, replays, charts, and more

Runner-up in the Shadwell was 82-1 shot Great Wide Open, who had 1 1/2 lengths on third-place Qurbaan, the only “logical” finisher among the top three. Next Shares, based in California with Richard Baltas, will go on to the BC Mile, for which the Shadwell was a BC Challenge race, and there we shall see if he can come close to reproducing a career-best performance.

In France last week, it was much of the same. Plumatic, a troubled fourth in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin, was supposed to be tuning up for the BC Mile on Oct. 6 at Longchamp in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein. There is much tuning left to be done after Plumatic finished a modest fourth. The next day, in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, heavily favored Polydream, the Freddie Head-trained 3-year-old filly some thought might be the next coming of three-time BC Mile winner Goldikova, got stuck behind fading horses in the homestretch of the seven-furlong race and lost all chance, checking in seventh. This result was much more undefining than disappointing.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2018: See DRF’s top contenders

In California, at least, form held in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile, where the two most obvious horses, Sharp Samurai and Fly to Mars, locked down the top two positions. Both are likely to show up at Churchill Downs, but neither of these Southern California top-of-the-ground types are likely to be happy if the course there comes up soggy on Nov. 3.

Order also prevailed Oct. 6 at Newmarket, where the classy Laurens captured her fourth Group 1 race of the season when she won the Sun Chariot Stakes, a one-mile straight-course race restricted to females. Laurens won the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) over 1 5/16 miles earlier this year, but has thrived cutting back in distance, and trainer Karl Burke said Laurens is under consideration both for the BC Filly and Mare Turf, for which she has a fees-paid entry by winning the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, and the Mile. Burke said the 1 3/8-mile Filly and Mare Turf might be within Laurens’s scope because the race is run around turns and has a homestretch short by European standards.

First things first: Laurens is expected to be supplemented to the last major one-mile race of the European season, the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on British Champions Day, Oct. 20 at Ascot.

:: Breeders' Cup PP packages: Get PPs, betting strategies, DRF+ Pro access, and more

“We haven’t done much with her,” Burke said, reached by phone Tuesday. “We’ll have a good look at her at the end of the week. If we feel she needs more time, we could [skip] Ascot.

“She has a great constitution, eats very well, and puts her weight back on after her races. She lost 15 kilos after the Matron, and only lost 4 kilos going to and from Newmarket. She’s certainly bounced out of that very well.”

The QE II also is expected to include BC Mile hopes Expert Eye, Lightning Spear, and Recoletos. The excellent Roaring Lion also could line up in that race rather than the Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs if the ground is testing.