Breeders' Cup Mile: Roster of prospective starters remains thin

The notion of a Breeders’ Cup Mile top-10 list is predicated on 10 horses actually running. In 2012, for the first time in Mile history, that didn’t happen, and a year after Wise Dan defeated just eight foes, the 2013 Mile could go with even fewer starters.

As of Wednesday, only six to eight horses were considered probable Mile runners, a stark decline from most of the race’s history. Full 14-runner fields used to be common, but the last one of those came in 2006. For the Mile’s first 23 years, ending that season, the race averaged 13.17 starters. During the last six years, only an average of 11.3 horses started.

[BREEDERS’ CUP 2013: See DRF’s top contenders]

Multiple factors have contributed to the decline. There are more rich international turf races now than ever; the domestic turf division has grown progressively softer.

Given the lay of the land, there has been more Mile news about who’s out than in, and the major item this week was Moonlight Cloud’s connections announcing she would ship to Hong Kong in December rather than contest the Mile. Moonlight Cloud re-asserted her position as an internationally elite turf miler with a dazzling win Sunday in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, but that race was contested around one bend on soft turf. Moonlight Cloud’s connections, owner-breeder George Strawbridge and trainer Freddie Head, are steadfast Breeders’ Cup supporters, and their choice has everything to do with Moonlight Cloud’s apparent distaste for American-style racing: Her eighth in the 2012 Mile was a career lowlight.

English trainer Richard Hannon’s pair of 3-year-olds, Toronado and Olympic Glory, long have made the list of possible Mile runners, but their status remains up in the air, Hannon’s son, Richard Jr., said Wednesday. Olympic Glory and Toronado will work this weekend, after which a decision will be made on who starts in the Oct. 19 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. Regardless, Olympic Glory is an unlikely BC Mile runner, Hannon Jr. said, while “there’s a good chance” Toronado winds up at Santa Anita.

Trainer John Sadler said not to totally rule out He Be Fire n Ice, runner-up in the Oct. 6 City of Hope Mile, despite the fact the California-bred would have to be supplemented.

And before writing the Mile off, keep in mind this rule of racing: Nothing helps field size grow like news that a race will have a short field.