Breeders' Cup Mile: With Polydream out and a rain-softened course, it's anyone's race

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The last time they ran the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Churchill Downs, in 2011, 64-1 shot Court Vision held on by a nose over 11-1 Turallure. Chaos could again rule in Saturday’s Mile here at Churchill.

In 2011, Goldikova was the 17-10 favorite, but betting this year will be spread out, especially with 5-1 morning-line favorite Polydream scratched by order of the stewards on the advice of the track veterinarian Friday morning. Freddie Head’s bid to win a sixth Mile following three wins as the trainer of Goldikova and two as the jockey of Miesque ended when vets deemed Polydream lame and unfit to compete, a position Head vehemently disputed.

Polydream’s scratch allows also-eligible Clemmie into the Mile. Hunt, who was in the field when this race was drawn Monday, didn’t ship from California and will be scratched, allowing the first also-eligible, Divisidero, into the race.

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Trainer Brian Lynch said Wednesday that he would scratch Oscar Performance, a leading American hope, if he deemed the course too wet. Oscar Performance performed dismally over wet Churchill turf in May 2017.

“It’d be hard to pull him out the way he’s coming into the race,” Lynch said. “I don’t think there’s a lot of speed in there, and he could be forwardly placed if not the speed of the race.”

Despite taking three inches of rain over a 36-hour period beginning late Wednesday morning, the Churchill turf course was labeled “good” for racing Friday. The sand-based course drains quickly and Churchill track maintenance officials used pumps to help suck water out of the turf, so there’s a decent chance Oscar Performance will take his chance in his career finale before going off to stud.

The drier-than-expected conditions will please many horsemen, but England-based trainer William Haggas, who has his first Breeders’ Cup runners this weekend, hoped a truly soft course would await his entrant, the filly One Master. Haggas, who trains One Master for Pennsylvanians Roy and Gretchen Jackson, said earlier this week, “If I were to pick a ground I’d pick soft.”

One Master got a clear outside run to avoid a jam-up in the Oct. 7 Prix de la Foret, race over about seven furlongs on Oct. 7 at Longchamp, winning her Group 1 debut at odds of 47-1.

“She had a good passage, and there was quite a bit of trouble inside her,” Haggas said. “We thought she always had a performance like that in her.”

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Oisin Murphy rides Lightning Spear and said his mount would handle softer going, though he also said Lightning Spear can be an in-and-out type, which shows in his form. He wasn’t competitive in his last two starts, but won the Group 1 Sussex over one mile on Aug. 1 at Goodwood.

Trainer Michael Stoute flatly said soft going would hinder both his runners, Expert Eye and Mustashry, especially the latter. “Expert Eye has handled good-to-soft, but soft, I don’t think so,” he said.

Mustashry is a progressive horse but is drawn wide, and Expert Eye holds more appeal, particularly if the course drains and dries. The 3-year-old Juddmonte Farms colorbearer was held out of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Oct. 20 and ran into compromising traffic trouble finishing third in the Sept. 9 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has yet to win the Mile but entered four – I Can Fly, Gustav Klimt, Happily, and Clemmie. O’Brien suggested I Can Fly, Gustav Klimt, and Happily wouldn’t be compromised by soft going, but Happily doesn’t have the form to win, Gustav Klimt has lost his last eight starts and is drawn wide, and I Can Fly just ran the best race of her life Oct. 20, finishing a close second in the QE II. Horses coming out of the QE II and into the Mile have gone 0-1-0 from five starts since the race was moved so close to the Breeders’ Cup. The O’Brien-trained Lancaster Bomber finished second in the 2017 Mile over Del Mar firm turf he liked after checking in 14th over soft going in the QE II.

Trainer Chad Brown has serious wet-turf concerns for his runners, Analyze It and Almanaar. Analyze It, Brown said, will be forwardly placed in the Mile if not the early leader.

Divisidero is a three-time winner from four Churchill starts, but the most interesting American might be Next Shares. Next Shares kept making strong runs that fell just short in California turf races, but is 2 for 2 in Kentucky this fall. He won the restricted Old Friends Stakes at Kentucky Downs and far exceeded that performance winning the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile by 3 1/4 lengths.

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“The shift over here to a little bit softer courses helped him,” trainer Richard Baltas said. “He won those races pretty easily.”

Next Shares is 10-1 on the track’s morning line, and 15-1 on Mike Watchmaker’s. That’s not 64-1, like Court Vision, but it would be just fine.