Breeders' Cup Mile: Notable Speech should get perfect setup for repeat

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LEXINGTON, Ky. – Notable Speech finished a good third as a 3-year-old in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile and won the race by 1 1/2 lengths last year, both times at Del Mar. His owner, trainer, and jockey – Godolphin, Charlie Appleby, and William Buick – have captured the BC Mile four times in the last five years. Notable Speech won two European Group 1s earlier this year, floundered as he always does over the Ascot course in the Queen Anne Stakes, and on Sept. 12, won the Woodbine Mile in Canada with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. A year ago, he won the same race with the same figure before his Del Mar tally.

It all feels like a foregone conclusion that on Saturday at Keeneland, Notable Speech will become the sixth horse to win two Miles – but for one slight blurry spot in the background of the whole picture.

Once, it was nearly a foregone conclusion that any live Appleby horse would win a graded stakes race on American soil. Between 2021 and 2024, Appleby went 31 for 106 in American graded stakes – and often ran more than one horse in a single such race. He operated an American division for much of 2024 and had 16 graded wins here that year. But 2025 was slower, 3 for 12, and this year, a slow season back home in England by Appleby’s incredibly lofty standards, his American graded stakes starters have gone 5-0-0-1.

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One of those was Notable Speech, who suffered an absolutely brutal trip finishing fourth here in April as the even-money favorite in the Maker’s Mark Mile. If Notable Speech holds bad memories of the experience, Appleby didn’t see them during training Wednesday morning.

“I loved seeing him out there today. He just stood up there and took it all in. He’s in great shape,” Appleby said.

Notable Speech, 7-5 on the morning line, will face no more than a dozen rivals in the $2 million Mile. Zulu Kingdom will be scratched, trainer Chad Brown said Wednesday, and the race’s one also-eligible, Via Arana, won’t run.

Notable Speech is easily the most accomplished and fastest among seven international runners, and he will defeat the Americans, too, with luck and a standard performance. In the Woodbine Mile, Deterministic, North America’s leading middle-distance horse this year, got an easy lead, and Notable Speech, who didn’t have clean passage, still ran him down, winning by 1 1/4 lengths.

“In an ideal run we would have been closer to the pace,” Appleby said. “We had to just ask Notable for an extra kick, and as always, he doesn’t let you down. William got off and said, ‘I’d have loved to have been closer. I’d have done it a lot easier.’”

Deterministic drew the rail for the Mile, and with an aggressive rider, Kendrick Carmouche, won’t be back on his heels out of the gate, but Cabo Spirit, Qirat, and Rhetorical all probably have more speed. That might be a good thing. Deterministic could slip into the pocket behind the leaders and have a target, rather than be the target as he was at Woodbine. Keeneland’s homestretch is shorter than Woodbine’s, giving Notable Speech less time to stoke up his run.

“All those angles are positive rather than negative going here,” trainer Miguel Clement said. “Deterministic is training well and had a spectacular work the other day. He’s King Kong right now. If anything, he’s going to run the best race of his life.”

Rhetorical got an easy lead going wire to wire here Oct. 3 in the Coolmore Turf Mile, but he stalked and pounced winning the same race a year earlier. Rhetorical finished third in the Maker’s Mark this spring with a bottled-up trip and fought a foot fungus that compromised him to some extent throughout the summer. He’s well drawn outside Saturday for a good pressing or stalking trip but lost his regular rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., to injury last week. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount.

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Rhetorical’s gain in the paceless Coolmore Turf Mile was Lake Forest’s loss. In from England for sharp trainer William Haggas, Lake Forest got into heavy traffic that compromised his momentum in upper stretch, and already faced an impossible task closing into such a tepid tempo. His regular rider, Cieren Fallon, jumped off the horse very pleased with the way Lake Forest had handled the tricky Keeneland course, and predicted he would improve from the experience.

Aidan O’Brien trained Order of Australia, a rank outsider, to win the 2020 Mile at Keeneland. His two entrants this year aren’t obvious favorites, but on paper both True Love and Puerto Rico stand a stronger chance than did Order of Australia.

True Love, a 3-year-old filly, won her first race since the 1000 Guineas in May when she narrowly captured the seven-furlong Prix de la Foret on Oct. 4 at Longchamp. Leading stable rider Ryan Moore rode her that day but switches to Puerto Rico for Saturday’s race, Christophe Soumillon taking the True Love mount.

Jockey assignments, O’Brien said, relate to some skepticism that True Love really wants a mile.

“A mile might stretch her, but she won a Newmarket Guineas, and you have to get a mile to win a Newmarket Guineas,” O’Brien said. “Things need to go right for her. She needs to save all her energy, and she doesn’t need to be in front too long. You’re really going to have to ride her to get a mile, I’d imagine.”

Puerto Rico struggled all season before finally coming back to his better 2025 form with a close third after pushing the pace in the Foret.

“It took him the whole year to get right,” O’Brien said. “There’s every chance he could come back to really what he was last year, and we’re nearly there with him. His work is excellent from his French race.”

Veteran Facteur Cheval looked good winning an Oct. 8 allowance race at Keeneland but clearly needs more than that to factor Saturday. Ask Ikigomi, a 3-year-old from Japan, is long on promise but short on experience, with just three starts and none since May, but rates a stronger chance than the other Japan-based runner, Lugal. Brilliant Berti at age 5 has yet to approach Grade 1 class, while Formidable Man, a fine second behind Notable Speech in the 2025 Mile, is just 1 for 3 this season.

He faces a formidable phalanx of Mile rivals, Notable Speech at the vanguard.

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