Breeders’ Cup Mile: Karakontie could be fair price in title defense

Sixteen horses, split half and half between North Americans and Europeans and including 2014 Mile winner Karakontie, were pre-entered in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile. That’s two more than are eligible to run in a race capped at 14 starters, but Bawina, in the main body of the field, has first preference in the Filly and Mare Turf, and if she goes there, it would allow War Envoy into the Mile. The second also-eligible horse, Recepta, also has first preference in the Filly and Mare Turf.

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Karakontie is one of four France-based horses in the Mile, and though he won’t be the 30-1 at which he won last year at Santa Anita, his odds could drift up to double digits. A quarter crack delayed his 2015 debut, and Karakontie’s two starts leading up to this race won’t look imposing on paper, but he should be headed back toward his best form and may yet have a say again this year.

Andre Fabre never has won the BC Mile but has the two lowest-priced entrants on the early betting line set by Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker in Esoterique and Make Believe. Esoterique, a 5-year-old mare, has won back-to-back Group 1 races overseas, though her most recent triumph, in the Sun Chariot Stakes, came in a female-restricted race, and she must prove she can run as well around turns as on a straight course.

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Make Believe, a lightly raced 3-year-old, should be the more progressive of the two from Fabre, and he was impressive in winning the Group 1 Prix de La Foret earlier this month in his first start since a flop at Royal Ascot in June.

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Among the other Europeans is Impassable, a 3-year-old France-based filly with a three-race win streak but no Group 1 experience.

Fillies and mares have accounted for eight wins in the Mile, though five of them alone came from three-time winner Goldikova and two-time winner Miesque. French horses have been the way to go in the race in recent years, with the last seven winners based outside North America shipping from France.

Time Test, who has high-class form and isn’t fully exposed in one-mile races, and Mondialiste, who shipped and won the Woodbine Mile last out, are the English hopes. War Envoy trains in Ireland with Aidan O’Brien and would need a career-best performance to have any chance.

Grand Arch won the local Mile prep, the Shadwell Turf Mile, by a head, and while he loves the Keeneland grass course, that was his first win at the Grade 1 level, and he could only finish 11th in last year’s Mile. Tepin, a 4-year-old filly, clocked a faster one-mile time than Grand Arch in winning the First Lady Stakes on the same Keeneland card.

The other Mile pre-entrants based on this continent are Lea, Midnight Storm, Mshawish, Obviously, and Tourist.