Breeders’ Cup Mile: Fabre duo the ones to fear
LEXINGTON, Ky. – Trainer Andre Fabre’s three Breeders’ Cup horses had their first trip to the Keeneland track Tuesday morning, settling into a perfect single-file line during easy exercise. Bringing up the rear was the Filly and Mare Turf starter Miss France. In front of her came Fabre’s two Mile runners, Make Believe at the head of affairs and Esoterique just behind.
In a brutally competitive edition of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile, one might as well take that as a sign, and a Make Believe-Esoterique exacta seems very much in play Saturday.
The Breeders’ Cup Mile, at one mile on turf, is race 8 at Keeneland, with a post time of 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
None of the four Breeders’ Cup wins for Fabre has come in the Mile. That could easily change Saturday, but the question remains – which Fabre?
Esoterique and Make Believe are co-favored in overseas betting, and one thing both horses have going for them is that they’re French. The seven times since 1996 that an American-based horse didn’t win the Mile, a French shipper did. The Mile also has yielded more repeat winners than any other Breeders’ Cup race, and last year’s hero, Karakontie – also French – is back for another try.
A fourth French horse, Impassable, can’t be ruled out, and the two horses from England, Time Test and Mondialiste, also are capable. That’s six Europeans, half of the Mile’s 12-horse field, and Americans will be hard pressed defending home court this year.
Esoterique’s Mile start has been plotted for a while, but Make Believe popped into the picture more recently. He won the French 2000 Guineas in May, easily handling New Bay, a very high-class 3-year-old, but after a disappointing performance June 16 at Ascot, he didn’t race until Oct. 3, when he won the Group 1 Prix de la Foret.
Make Believe possesses many merits. He has the pace to stay in touch with the leaders and strong acceleration. He has run well on firm ground and on heavy turf and is 1 for 1 in races on left-handed courses like Keeneland’s. Olivier Peslier, who rode Goldikova to three Mile wins, is Make Believe’s jockey, and his task is to switch off a colt who can be difficult to restrain.
The 5-year-old mare Esoterique enters after Group 1 wins at a mile in the Jacques Les Marois and the Sun Chariot. She won the Marois on soft going and would only be troubled, Fabre said, by “heavy ground” that she won’t encounter Saturday. Esoterique’s best form has come in straight-course miles, and she’s won only once in four left-handed starts, but Fabre said he isn’t concerned about the tight-turning, left-handed Keeneland course.
“Despite being a small track, it’s very well designed,” he said.
A quarter crack delayed Karakontie’s 2015 debut, and in his two starts late this summer and fall, he finished sixth and third. But don’t underestimate the colt, a bigger, stronger version of the horse who overcame post 14 to win impressively at Santa Anita. Alan Cooper, racing manager for the colt’s owner, the Niarchos family, said trainer Jonathan Pease has pointed Karakontie to the Mile all season. He’s drawn wide again in post 11, but the condition of the turf course might be of greater concern than the draw since Karakontie would prefer good-to-firm going.
Time Test, the higher-rated of the two English horses, does his best on firm turf, according to trainer Roger Charlton, while Mondialiste would like it wet. Time Test, who drew poorly in post 12, is best suited to 1 1/4-mile races but was a last-out winner of the one-mile Joel Stakes and might be suited by the local conditions.
“I think a turning course will probably suit him,” said Charlton. “It’s a good race, mind, particularly the French horses.”
Mondialiste shipped to Canada and won the Woodbine Mile on a yielding course, and his only poor race this year came when he raced against a bias, trainer David O’Meara said.
“We’ve got to know him a little better since then,” O’Meara said. “He’s improved of late.”
California shipper Obviously will make the lead, as he did in finishing third, fifth, and fifth again in three previous BC Mile tries. The filly Tepin should attend the pace, just as she did in romping to victory here at Keeneland earlier this month in the First Lady Stakes. That seven-length win produced a career-best 108 Beyer Speed Figure, but trainer Mark Casse doesn’t fear regression.
“I know she ran so impressively, but it was nothing for her, really,” Casse said.
The same day Tepin won here over soft turf, Grand Arch won the Shadwell Turf Mile, enhancing his stellar record at Keeneland.
“He’s matured into a big, strong horse, and everything says he could come back and run that last race again,” said trainer Brian Lynch.
Tourist, who has room to improve, has more speed than he showed while closing for third in the Shadwell. Mshawish, who appears to be training very well, looked like one of the best milers in North America early this year.
If only he had come here from France.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 10 Mshawish. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 54-3-4-8 with a $0.42 ROI over the past five years in Grade 1 turf routes. – Mike Hogan