Breeders' Cup Mile: Deterministic seeks to turn tables on Notable Speech

Round 2 comes around two turns, not one, and the connections of Deterministic hope that he can reverse the one-two finish Sept. 12 in the Woodbine Mile.

Deterministic had won six in a row, including four Grade 1s, when he shipped to Canada from New York for the Woodbine Mile. There, he ran into the best turf miler who has raced in North America the last two years, Notable Speech. Deterministic led on a moderate pace, while Notable Speech had to find his way through some traffic before launching a late rally – and he still ran down Deterministic to win by 1 1/4 lengths.

Notable Speech seeks his second straight Breeders’ Cup Mile on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. He’ll be solidly favored – to what extent depends on which race, Mile or Filly and Mare Turf, the connections of Blue Bolt choose – and, barring an impossibly compromising trip like he got in April in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland, will be very difficult to defeat.

Deterministic is set to make his Breeders’ Cup and Keeneland turf debut, and considerable improvement will be required to turn the tables on Notable Speech, who basically breezed past Deterministic in the Woodbine Mile.

“It was a one-turn race with a long stretch, and all day long the E.P. Taylor turf course was favoring closers,” trainer Miguel Clement said of the Woodbine Mile. “Keeneland, it’s two turns and the stretch is 22 percent shorter than Woodbine.”

Deterministic might not have run his very best race at Woodbine: His Beyer Speed Figure dipped below 100 for the first time in six races, down from a 104 in the Fourstardave on Aug. 8 to a 99.

“Some speed figures had him a little lower, some had him equivalent,” Clement said Wednesday morning. “He worked very, very well yesterday, and the whole camp is happy with him.”

Deterministic’s winning streak began in May 2025 in the Fort Marcy, when Clement’s father, the late Christophe Clement, still trained the horse. Shortly after Miguel Clement took over the stable, Deterministic won his first Manhattan, following that with his second Grade 1 win, in the 2025 Fourstardave two Augusts ago. Deterministic never breezed back after the Fourstardave, finally showing up on the work tab in February at Payson Park and returning to racing action with another Fort Marcy score. Winning the Manhattan and the Fourstardave this past summer, Deterministic raced with a target ahead of him, but at Woodbine, he provided a target for Notable Speech.

“It would be ideal if he gets a real pace to run at,” said Clement, who prefers his horse gets a relatively firm course at Keeneland. “He’s run on soft turf, and no reason he shouldn’t be able to handle it, but, ideally, you’d like to run on firm turf.”

Notable Speech firmly displayed his superiority around one turn at Woodbine. Deterministic’s people hope a second bend at Keeneland narrows the divide.

Trainer Mark Casse said that Facteur Cheval, the international warrior who recently joined Casse’s stable and won well last week at Keeneland, is a candidate for the Mile. The Queen Elizabeth II on Saturday at Ascot could yield at least one Mile runner, with Ten Bob Tony, in particular, still being considered for a trip to Keeneland.