Breeders' Cup Mile: Deterministic, Carmouche outlast Notable Speech

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LEXINGTON, Ky. – All year, Miguel Clement has forcefully extolled the virtues of the crack middle-distance turf horse he trains, Deterministic. And Deterministic has forcefully backed up Clement’s talk.

Not only did Deterministic prove, as Clement has long contended, that he’s the best turf horse based in America, on Saturday at Keeneland he was the best horse in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, defeating the race’s 2025 winner and odds-on favorite, Notable Speech, by three-quarters of a length.

“He’s been top class for two seasons,” Clement said. “I thought he was the best turf horse last year and this year as well, if not just in America, but maybe even the world, and I’m just delighted we were able to pull it off today.”

Deterministic pulled it off because he is at least the best turf horse in North America, and because jockey Kendrick Carmouche gave Deterministic a perfect trip. Carmouche, a noted gate rider, pushed forward at the start, then dropped Deterministic into the pocket. Deterministic inherited the lead before the far turn, went clear at the three-sixteenths marker, and took care of business.

“Every step of the race I thought I was a winner.” Carmouche said.

Carmouche, 42, has been riding for 25 years and won his first Breeders’ Cup race on Saturday. Clement, 32, also won his first Breeders’ Cup race. Clement has been a head trainer for only about 17 months, taking over a powerful stable after his father, Christophe Clement, died of cancer late last spring. Deterministic made his first 11 starts for Christophe. Less than a week into his training career, Miguel saddled the horse to win the Grade 1 Manhattan at Saratoga.

“He’s meant the world to us. He gave us great happiness in a very dark part of our lives. He means a tremendous amount to a lot of people, so it’s very rewarding to have our first Breeders’ Cup winner with him,” Clement said.

Notable Speech came up short in his bid for two straight Miles – but he went down fighting. Deterministic had five lengths on Notable Speech at the stretch call: A couple more jumps, and Notable Speech probably wins. Notable Speech had run down Deterministic last out and won the Woodbine Mile by 1 1/4 lengths, but Woodbine has a longer homestretch than Keeneland, and Notable Speech ran out of ground this time.

Jockey William Buick rued a sluggish break that put Notable Speech back on his heels at the start. Buick rode aggressively into the first turn and managed to get Notable Speech covered up in mid-pack. By the time he was able to tip the horse out for clear running in upper stretch, Deterministic had an insurmountable lead.

“He was a bit slow away, and I had to work for what I got, but he ended up in an okay spot, I thought,” Buick said. “The winner had gone and I just had to wait.”

Five-year-old Notable Speech, a 10-time winner from 20 starts, seven times first in Group or Grade 1s, ran his last race Saturday.

“He’s retired now and he’s retired safe and sound,” said Charlie Appleby, who trains Notable Speech for Godolphin. “Like I said before, this horse owes us nothing. It wasn’t the run that we wanted, but he showed all of his usual class and determination right up to the wire.”

Lake Forest finished strongly for third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Notable Speech, and he did so despite an even more difficult trip than Notable Speech. Typically a deep closer, Lake Forest raced surprisingly close to the leaders and was in a good spot, going well, while saving ground into the far turn – until suddenly he lost several lengths and positions.

“He lost his back end on the bend,” jockey Cieron Fallon said. “The ground is bad. Unfortunately for us we, he got a little unbalanced.”

Veteran Facteur Cheval outran his odds and was a fine fourth, and was followed home by Japan-based 3-year-old Ask Ikigomi, who got through on the fence for his stretch run and ran creditably making his first start since May and only the third of his career. Then came Rhetorical, Puerto Rico, Brilliant Berti, True Love, Formidable Man, Lugal, Cabo Spirit, and Qirat.

Deterministic got his mile over a firm course in 1:34.52 and paid $12.10. Clement trains the 4-year-old colt, a son of Liam’s Map and the Speightstown mare Giulio’s Jewel, for St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Stephen Duncker, and Vicarage Stable.

Carmouche broke sharply and might have made the lead if he wanted. Instead, he let Cabo Spirit cross and clear while going at a moderate clip, the opening quarter in 23.31. Cabo Spirit, as is his wont, drifted off the rail partly down the backstretch, Carmouche eased forward, and when it became clear Cabo Spirit wasn’t going to drop back down on him, he let Deterministic run to the lead. Deterministic went sweetly around the far turn, kicked on in upper stretch, and had enough left to hold off Notable Speech, one of the world’s elite milers.

And this horse, as his trainer long has proclaimed, is one of those, too.

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