Breeders' Cup Mile analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEMike Watchmaker
I felt strongly about KARAKONTIE before the draw and won’t abandon him despite his terrible post. His last two starts (big trouble last time, wrong distance two back) are throw-outs. He won the French 2000 Guineas three back, was a Group 1 winner last year, and yet still will be a good price. TORONADO inherited the role of favorite from Wise Dan, and deservedly so, given his win and two sharp seconds in three starts this year, all at the Group 1 level; must beat him to win it. ANODIN comes out of the same Arc undercard race as Karakontie and had trouble, though not as much trouble. He hit the board in Group 1 races in his prior three starts, including seconds to such standouts as Kingman and Cirrus des Aigles. MUSTAJEEB and VEDA seem a cut below the top three but sport sharp form and can still get pieces at square prices.
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Dave Litfin
Pretty much leaning all European and looking for TORONADO to make good use of his high cruising speed. The only horses to beat him this year are the 7-for-8 Kingman and the five-time group winner Charm Spirit. The filly VEDA is a potential exotics price play with some good company lines, notably Avenir Certain, who won her first six before a midpack finish in the Arc; a sharp tune-up at Longchamp four weeks ago when edged by Solow, who was winning a third straight for the same connections as ANODIN . The latter, a full brother to three-time Mile winner Goldikova, is OK with firm ground, judging from last win in 2013 and a third to Toronado on good going; latest was a tad too short for him when checked at a crucial juncture. MUSTAJEEB impressed at Royal Ascot, toting 130 pounds and beating 22 foes; has run well twice around U.S.-style left-handed turns.
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Brad Free
Ireland-based MUSTAJEEB has long targetted this race, and the good 3-year-old is qualified to upset favorite TORONADO. The overseas form of Mustajeeb is solid, and he runs well fresh. This is his first since early September, and he is a price at 6-1. Toronado is the favorite for good reason. Runner-up in back-to-back Group 1s, winner of a G1 three back, and one-two in 9 of 11, he ranks among the world's top turf milers. KARAKONTIE, a Group 1 winner in May, had back luck since. He misfired in June at a distance that was too far and had no shot in his comeback. It was an 11th-place finish in a G1 in which he steadied and was shuffled, blocked most of the trip, and never had a chance to run. His chances were compromised here when he drew post 14 of 14. TOM'S TRIBUTE is the top turf miler in California, but these clearly are tougher. Front-runner OBVIOUSLY will take them as far as he can.