Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Race shape looks murky with European contingent still uncertain
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What we know about the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf these first few days of October is that we don’t know all that much.
The Summer Stakes at Woodbine, the Pilgrim Stakes at Aqueduct – those key prep races have been run. Sunday, the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland and to a lesser extent the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita should bring further clarity. But what we’re really waiting to take shape is the European contingent, and Sunday’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp, which could include as many as three horses ranked in the Juvenile Turf Top 10 this week, ought to help in that regard.
An overseas shipper has won the Juvenile Turf 11 times in the race’s 16-year history, and among the European hopefuls, one clearly must give extra attention to horses trained by Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby. O’Brien has won the Juvenile Turf a record six times, including the last two renewals. Appleby has three Juvenile Turf wins, and either Appleby or O’Brien has won the race five of the last seven years.
Al Qudra, the Godolphin and Appleby colt long marked down as their leading Juvenile Turf hope, turned in a slightly disappointing performance in the Summer, where he finished second as the heavy favorite, though his 91 Beyer Speed Figure, would make him a major player in most Juvenile Turf editions. The Summer winner, New Century, earned a 93 (it remains to be seen if the Summer figure turns out to be inflated), and is expected to show up at Del Mar for England-based trainer Andrew Balding. Appleby, following Al Qudra’s defeat, didn’t commit the colt to the Juvenile Turf, while suggesting he could have more than one runner for the race.
While O’Brien often brings two Juvenile Turf colts, he either chooses, or reveals his choices, very late in the process, though Henri Matisse reportedly is under strong consideration in advance of his Sunday start in the Lagardere. Also in that race is Cowardofthecounty, based in Ireland with trainer Joseph O’Brien but owned by American interests, Stonestreet Stable and John Oxley; and Rashabar, whose connections’ interest in the Breeders’ Cup appears to have waned over the last week.
The Dewhurst on Oct. 12 at Newmarket periodically yields a Breeders’ Cup runner, though the winner often is put away for the winter to aim for Classic races the next season.
The first two home in the Pilgrim, Zulu Kingdom and Noble Confessor, figure to come back in the Juvenile Turf, as does Tiztastic, winner of the Juvenile Mile at Kentucky Downs. Warlander, Tiztastic’s Steve Asmussen-trained stablemate and sometime work partner, is part of a full field in the Bourbon, which also includes the Appleby-trained Cavallo Bay and looks, on paper, like a wildly competitive affair.
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