Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Pilgrim win makes Agate Road serious contender
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A rare Wednesday graded stakes race in New York added at least a hint of clarity to the North American murk that is the 2-year-old male turf division. As of early Wednesday afternoon, a grand total of one male 2-year-old on the continent had so much as cracked 80 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale in a turf race at six furlongs or longer.
We’ll see what kind of figure Agate Road’s win Wednesday afternoon in the rescheduled Pilgrim Stakes at Aqueduct receives, but the colt was visually solid coming off a Saratoga turf route maiden win in which he appeared beaten at the three-sixteenths pole.
Todd Pletcher trains Agate Road and has two more horses, Noted and Nomos, for the Bourbon Stakes on Sunday at Keeneland. The Bourbon is the last divisional race that’s part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series and you can pencil in at least a couple of its starters for the BC Juvenile. Noted won the Sapling at Monmouth making his dirt and stakes debut but Pletcher is loaded with talented 2-year-old dirt horses and Noted ran well in a pair of grass starts to begin his career. Thus, the move back to turf Sunday.
Carson’s Run is the lone horse to earn a Beyer as high as 80, hitting that number exactly winning the Summer Stakes on Sept. 16 at Woodbine, a race that figures to be his last before the Juvenile Turf since Carson’s Run wasn’t entered in the Pilgrim or the Bourbon.
Less murky? The clear European dominance of the Juvenile Turf.
In the 16-year history of the race, European shippers have won 10 times, and over the last 12 years, horses trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien and in England by Charlie Appleby have eight Juvenile Turf wins. Last year at Keeneland, the O’Brien-trained Victoria Road nipped the Appleby-trained Silver Knott.
Appleby, as of this week, at least appears light on plausible Juvenile Turf runners, but you can probably pencil in O’Brien for two starters. The best guess at which two as of Wednesday: Unquestionable and Capulet, both of whom appear a couple cuts above the North Americans.
Unquestionable has achieved the higher rating between the two during his five-start campaign and last weekend was an encouraging second over quick ground at Longchamp in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. That was Unquestionable’s first start around a turn and first race beyond six furlongs, and he should be suited for the short-stretch mile at Santa Anita.
Capulet for the first time raced over a straight course last week in the Grade 2 Royal Lodge, where he finished a quietly encouraging third. A winner around bends over the all-weather track at Dundalk in his career debut and a good second behind stablemate Diego Velazquez going around an easy turn at Leopardstown in the Group 2 Juvenile Stakes, Capulet appeared somewhat out of sorts going down into “The Dip,” as a low point on the Newmarket course is called, but he righted himself through the uphill finish and was gaining again at the end.
The Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes on Oct. 14 at Newmarket typically produces a Juvenile Turf starter, though the race’s winner often is put away for the year to aim at 3-year-old spring classics.
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