Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: This one (probably) belongs to the Americans

ARCADIA, Calif. – “What do you think of the Europeans?” American trainers with horses in the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf want to know. The question comes with equal parts curiosity, trepidation, and hope.

The Europeans, directly and indirectly, have owned the Juvenile Turf during its nine-year existence, but their raiding party might not be quite up to par this year.

Horses shipped from overseas straight to the Juvenile Turf have won six times. Hootenanny won in 2014 after having raced in France and England.

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The only Juvenile Turf winners that didn’t at least partly straddle the Atlantic were Nownownow in the 2007 inaugural running and Pluck in 2010. Todd Pletcher trained Pluck, a son of More Than Ready who came in after a substantial layoff. And look at that – there’s a Pletcher-trained son of More Than Ready making his first start since Aug. 31 in this year’s field.

Made You Look is 12-1 on the morning line in the one-mile Juvenile Turf and could be an attractive play. Like his sire, who first started in April, Made You Look was ready to run early, finishing second in his five-furlong debut in May – “He ran decently,” Pletcher said – before winning his maiden second out at six furlongs. Pletcher targeted the Grade 2 With Anticipation at Saratoga, and Made You Look delivered a professional performance in his two-turn debut, winning by two lengths over Keep Quiet, who starts in the Juvenile Turf after winning the Grade 3 Bourbon.

“He’s always caught on to everything very quickly,” Pletcher said. “I was impressed with how he did things stretching out in the With Anticipation.”

Pletcher said the success he had bringing fresh horses into the 2015 Breeders’ Cup encouraged him to train Made You Look up to this race.

“He literally hasn’t missed a day of training since his last race,” Pletcher said.

Made You Look will be a longer price than two other East Coast shippers, Good Samaritan and Oscar Performance. Good Samaritan, a Harlan’s Holiday colt trained by Bill Mott, narrowly won his debut at Saratoga, then ran even better capturing the Sept. 18 Summer Stakes at Woodbine over promising Conquest Fahrenheit. Mott, too, saw no point in squeezing another start in before the Breeders’ Cup, and things have gone as planned with Good Samaritan.

“When you’re training and running them the first couple times, sometimes they’ll shrivel up on you a little bit just from the stress of it, but with the extra couple weeks he’s had, I think he’s gotten stronger,” Mott said.

Good Samaritan is a bulkier, long-striding horse that lacks the pace of a colt like Made You Look, and he’ll need plenty of racing luck rallying from well off the lead in a field of 14.

No such concerns surround Oscar Performance, who went straight to the front winning a two-turn maiden race at Saratoga by more than 10 lengths on firm turf and the Grade 3 Pilgrim over yielding ground at Belmont on Oct. 1 by six lengths.

“Having cut my teeth in California, I know the grass racing there is a much different style,” trainer Brian Lynch said. “He’s been on a nice, relaxed pace in his last two races, and they’re going to go quick from the start, but I’m not convinced he needs to be on the lead.”

Oscar Performance drew post 13, but has the speed to get position in the short run to the first turn and track likely pacesetter Wellabled, the Arlington-Washington Futurity winner, who is 3 for 3 on synthetic surfaces and 0 for 1 on turf.

Drawn on the far outside is Ticonderoga, who trainer Chad Brown readily acknowledges will need massive racing luck to have a chance. “I think you have to take back and hope for the best,” Brown said.

Ticonderoga doesn’t lack talent but is a work in progress. Already racing in blinkers, he raced greenly finishing second in the Bourbon Stakes, and Brown is trying a different bit for this start.

Brown is trying a different surface with his second entrant, Favorable Outcome, who was third in the Champagne following a flashy dirt-sprint maiden win at Saratoga. Brown said a strong synthetic work by Favorable Outcome at a 2-year-old breeze-up sale encouraged him to consider turf, and Favorable Outcome breezed heads-up with Ticonderoga on grass.

As for the Europeans, they are three-strong. Rodaini is better than his last start – a ninth in a Group 3 at Newmarket – suggests, but probably not good enough, and the two runners trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has won this race three of the last five years, are hard to read.

Lancaster Bomber was a pacemaker for O’Brien’s leading 2017 Classics hope Churchill last out in the Grade 1 Dewhurst Stakes, but managed to stay on for second behind him. But Lancaster Bomber was 66-1 in that race and his only win came by a nose over maidens.

Intelligence Cross, who gets O’Brien’s first-call rider Ryan Moore, has a Group 3 win, was twice Group 2 placed, and most recently was one-paced fourth in the Group 1 Middle Park, a body of work superior to Lancaster Bomber’s. By War Front, Intelligence Cross has raced only at six furlongs down straight courses, and it’s a mystery how he’ll handle turns and more distance.

“He’s a horse we think maybe can get a mile on a flat track like this,” O’Brien said.

O’Brien’s thoughts on the Juvenile Turf historically have been good ones. But, for a change, this year might belong to the Americans.