Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf analysis

Mike Watchmaker

European shippers have dominated this race since its inception, and there is no reason to think that won’t continue. COMMEMORATIVE’ s Group 3 win at Newmarket last time was his second straight score at a mile. He’s much improved and might be a better price than some of the other Euro invaders. WET SAIL ran in the relative minors in England, but any horse who can finish third ahead of 20 opponents, as he did last time in a $330,000 race, is okay with me. WAR ENVOY wasn’t a bad fifth in a Group 1 on the Arc undercard most recently, hit the board in three straight group stakes before that, and is logical. IMPERIA got his maiden win in the Pilgrim with Lasix; preferred among the U.S. horses. HOOTENANNY beat 23 opponents in June at Ascot and followed with a Group 1 second but stretches out off a two-month layoff. AKTABANTAY , sixth in the same race that War Envoy comes out of, can contend.

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Byron King

With a large field of inexperienced horses going a mile on grass, inside- or middle-drawn horses typically have an advantage in the Juvenile Turf. The upset choice is 8-1 COMMEMORATIVE . He twice won at a mile overseas after debuting at seven furlongs. While other Europeans are trying to prove they can go this distance, he is a known commodity. WAR ENVOY is a War Front colt who has raced in five consecutive Group 2 or Group 1 stakes for Aidan O’Brien; another top Euro, though without the experience at a mile. HOOTENANNY began his career with two races in the U.S. before winning a 24-horse stakes race at Ascot and then running second in a Group 1 in France. What he has not done is race beyond six furlongs. LUCK OF THE KITTEN was a front-running winner over the Santa Anita turf in a recent stakes, which followed a runner-up stakes finish at Kentucky Downs after he stumbled at the start.

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Brad Free

CONQUEST TYPHOON is poised to upset the BC Juvenile Turf for trainer Mark Casse. The highly regarded colt began his career in a stakes, and two starts later scored a powerful win in the important Grade 2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine, an historically productive race on the North American calendar won recently by My Conquestadory, Pluck, Finale and Bridgetown. Conquest Typhoon lost his most recnent start, but that race was merely a conditioning prep for this. He has speed for a forward position, and should get first run on the leaders. HOOTENANNY is the one to catch. His international resume includes a runner-up finish in a Group 1 in France two months ago. He has trained fast since, and is likely to lead as far as he can first start beyond six furlongs. WAR ENVOY exits a series of top races in Europe; the past six winners of this race made their final start outside the U.S. (five in Europe, one in Canada). AKTABANTAY finished directly behind WAR ENVOY in the same race.