Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: American horses lacking in Beyer power
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Agate Road came flying home from seventh place in upper stretch to win the Pilgrim Stakes, a key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, on Oct. 9. Only he wasn’t flying. Winning time for the 1 1/16-mile Pilgrim was 1:42.84, a raw time that produced a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. That’s a low figure, even by 2-year-old turf-route standards, but such has been the rule, not the exception, with the 2-year-old male grass horses of 2023.
Seventeen 2-year-olds were pre-entered in the $1 million Juvenile Turf, contested at one mile. Five pre-entrants are from overseas, four from trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Europeans always are tough in this race, and as slow as the North Americans have been so far this year, their superiority could be even more pronounced.
Carson’s Run earned an 80 Beyer winning the Summer Stakes on Sept. 16, the only 2-year-old colt or gelding with a Beyer of 80 or higher so far this year in a turf race of 6 1/2 furlongs or farther. There are only eight speed figures of 77 or higher going into the Breeders’ Cup. These are historically low numbers in the division.
In 2022, four horses had earned an 80 Beyer or higher before the Breeders’ Cup, with 10 figures of 77 or higher. In 2021, the top for pre-Breeders’ Cup figures were 89, 89, 88, and 85; there were nine figures of 80 and higher, 16 of 77 or higher. The 2019 crop was down, but even that year there were five 80-plus pre-Breeders’ Cup Beyers and 16 figures of 77 or higher. The top figures going into the BC Juvenile Turf in 2016 at Santa Anita were 92, 90, 89, and 89, with a dozen figures of 80 or higher, 21 of at least 77.
If one is finding the Juvenile Turf inscrutable, it’s for good reason.
The Pilgrim and Summer winners are pre-entered, as is the Zuma Beach winner, the unbeaten Endlessly, whose top figure is 78. Three pre-entrants exit the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland, where Can Group beat Noted by a nose with a 72 Beyer. Tok Tok, fifth with a ton of trouble, might be better than both of them.
Fourteen can start in the Juvenile Turf. Stay Hot, Grand Mo the First, and Liam’s Journey are, in order of preference, the three alternate starters.
O’Brien has the two shortest prices on the early morning line set by David Aragona, who has River Tiber at 4-1 and Unquestionable at 5-1. River Tiber is the more accomplished colt, with a win in the Group 2 Coventry at Royal Ascot and third-place finishes in the Group 1 Prix Morny and Group 1 Middle Park. River Tiber, however, never has raced beyond six furlongs and was a precocious colt. Unquestionable has been improving and comes off his best race, a second-place finish going around a right-handed turn in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. O’Brien’s other two, Mountain Bear and Johannes Brahms, have less imposing form, and whomever Ryan Moore rides of O’Brien’s four can be considered the leading chance.
Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby, who twice have won this race, send Legend of Time, a maiden winner in his debut and a fifth-place Group 3 finisher in his second start. The form seems fairly light. Maybe this year it will suffice.
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