Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Once again, it's likely to come up Baffert or Pletcher

In 2022, the last the time Breeders’ Cup was held at Keeneland, the $2 million Juvenile featured a heavily favored undefeated Grade 1 winner trained by Bob Baffert who was upset by a Todd Pletcher trainee coming off a hard-fought victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity.

Lather, rinse, repeat?

In this year’s $2 million Juvenile, Baffert will again have the expected heavy favorite in the undefeated Grade 1 winner Hughes, while Pletcher will counter with American History, who got up late to win last Saturday’s Breeders’ Futurity. Either Baffert or Pletcher has won the Juvenile the last five years.

In 2022, the Pletcher-trained Forte came with a rally and got up late to win the Breeders’ Futurity. He came back a month later to beat Cave Rock, the 2-5 favorite sent out by Baffert in the Juvenile at Keeneland.

This year, Hughes comes in 4 for 4 following a dominant six-length victory in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. His winning margin in his four victories is a combined 24 1/2 lengths. Depending on field size, Hughes is likely to hover around even-money or less in the Juvenile as he looks to give Baffert a record-extending seventh victory in the Juvenile.

American History, a son of Constitution, won the Breeders’ Futurity despite breaking slowly and failing to change leads in the stretch. He won by one length over Coach Pope, who was a neck better than Q B Rocket, those two dueling for the final half-mile of the race.

“I thought he had a lot to do, was still a little green, didn’t switch leads,” Pletcher said of American History’s Breeders’ Futurity. “But he had his momentum going, Johnny [Velaquez] just wanted to keep going rather than wrestle with him for a lead change. I think it should bring him forward.”

In 2015, also when the Breeders’ Cup was held at Keeneland, Essential Quality, the Breeders’ Futurity winner, also won the Juvenile.

Pletcher also could run a second horse in the Juvenile. On Sunday, Damavand, a son of Not This Time who brought $1 million as a yearling, won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Keeneland by a neck.

Last year, the Juvenile drew eight horses but only ran with six. This year’s race may not be much different.

U. S. S. Valor, the dominant Grade 1 Champagne winner, is skipping the Juvenile as owner Barry Irwin wants to focus on a 3-year-old campaign he hopes includes the Kentucky Derby. Napoleon Solo, last year’s Champagne winner, also skipped the Juvenile and while he missed this year’s Derby, he did win the Preakness.

Coach Pope, the runner-up in the Breeders’ Futurity, and Net Par, runner-up in the American Pharoah, are expected to move on to the Juvenile. Champagne runner-up Gaudreau has not been ruled out of the Juvenile by trainer Chad Brown, but he is far from definite to run. Q B Rocket, third in the Breeders’ Futurity, also is only a possible.

Salahudin, the undefeated winner of the Iroquois Stakes trained by Baffert, and He Is No Lie, the runner-up in the Iroquois trained by Doug O’Neill, are both considered definite for the Juvenile.

Full Access, unbeaten in two starts, including a three-length victory in the Rocky Run Stakes at Delaware Park last Saturday, is under consideration for the Juvenile, trainer Riley Mott said.