Breeders' Cup Juvenile: If history repeats, Baffert wins
Seven times in his career, trainer Bob Baffert has recorded double-digit wins with 2-year-olds at Del Mar’s summer meet. The last three times that happened – 2021, 2018, and 2002 – one of those horses won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
This summer, Baffert won 12 races with his 2-year-old crop. This weekend, many of those winners will be in action, attempting to advance to the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 4 at Keeneland. When Corniche won last year’s Juvenile at Del Mar, it was Baffert’s fifth BC Juvenile victory, tying him for the most in that race with D. Wayne Lukas.
Cave Rock, arguably the best of Baffert’s group, National Treasure, and Hejazi, who finished second twice at Del Mar and is still a maiden, are expected to run in Saturday’s Grade 1 American Pharoah. Baffert may also start Gandolfini, a debut winner at Los Alamitos, in the $300,000 American Pharoah.
In Saturday’s Grade 1, $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, Baffert will run Carmel Road and Newgate. The latter is a substitute for National Treasure, who based on insufficient earnings likely would not have gotten into the race, which is expected to be oversubscribed.
The winners of the American Pharoah and Breeders’ Futurity both earn automatic, fees-paid berths into the Juvenile.
Cave Rock, a son of Arrogate, “is a freak,” Baffert said.
Hard to argue. He sped off to a six-length victory on Aug. 13, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. In the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, he set wicked early fractions and still galloped to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Arrogate was also a freak, though he didn’t get to the races until his 3-year-old season, a year in which he outdueled the California Chrome to win the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Baffert said Cave Rock “is a real powerful horse. He’s probably quicker than his father, but he’s built different.”
Carmel Road, a son of Quality Road, needed two starts to win his maiden, something he did by 8 3/4 lengths when stretched out to a mile on Aug. 26.
“He impressed when I stretched him out,” Baffert said.
Hejazi, a New York-bred by Bernardini who brought $3.5 million at the Timonium 2-year-old-in-training auction, finished second twice at Del Mar, both going 5 1/2 furlongs.
“He’s ready now to go long. He wants to go long,” Baffert said.
Newgate, Baffert said, “got caught in Cave Rock’s jetwash” when running fourth in the Del Mar Futurity following a maiden win. “Two turns will suit him better,” Baffert said.
While Baffert runners figure to dominate what is likely to be a short field in the American Pharoah, the Breeders’ Futurity is expected to attract more than the allowed 14 runners.
Todd Pletcher called an audible regarding Grade 1 Hopeful winner Forte and shipped him to the Breeders’ Futurity after initially targeting last Saturday’s Grade 1 Champagne. Lost Ark, who won the Sapling for Pletcher, is also running in the Breeders’ Futurity.
Kenny McPeek is expected to run Honed and Hayes Strike, the second- and fourth-place finishers from the Iroquois at Churchill, and Frosted Departure, recent blowout winner of a Churchill allowance.
Blazing Sevens secured his spot in the Juvenile with a 3 1/4-length victory in the Champagne. Verifying, the runner-up from that race, has not been ruled out of Juvenile consideration, said trainer Brad Cox, who will send out debut winners Instant Coffee and Loggins in the Breeders’ Futurity.
Trainer Tom Amoss said he plans to work Iroquois winner Curly Jack once more at Churchill before shipping him to Keeneland for his last two works. Awesome Strong, who swept the Florida Sire Stakes series at Gulfstream, will also be an early arrival.
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