Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf analysis

MIKE WATCHMAKER
Although European shippers haven’t dominated this race like they have the Juvenile Turf, a European – Chriselliam – absolutely dominated this race last year. I’m looking in that direction again this year. OSAILA boasts Euro lines that potentially lay over this field, including a decisive win at odds-on in a $500,000 race at Newmarket most recently and a strong victory three starts back in a Group 3 at Ascot. SIVOLIERE comes off a solid third in a Group 3 at Deauville. She’s been in this country for a bit with new trainer Chad Brown, who has fashioned a long string of success with European shippers for this owner. SUNSET GLOW returns to turf off a game win in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. She was second three starts back in a Group 3 at Ascot, finishing ahead of 19 opponents. QUALIFY delivered her best race yet last time with a decisive score in a Group 3 at The Curragh but drew a terrible post position.

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DAVE LITFIN
The forecast is for sun-baked, firm turf, which suits SIVOLIERE, who won twice on such footing before being purchased after a close third in a Group 3 on soft ground at Deauville. These same connections won filly-and-mare turf championships back to back with imports Stacelita (2011) and Zagora (2012), and it will make for quite the story if Sivoliere works out a winning trip under Gary Stevens. OSAILA has won the last three times she has been ridden by Frankie Dettori, all on good or good-to-firm ground at three major tracks in England; drew favorably. LADY ELI unleashed a strong turn of foot in taking the Miss Grillo, but the filly closest to her, Margaret Reay, is still a maiden. SUNSET GLOW has shown talent and versatility with five exacta finishes from as many starts on turf and synthetic on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean; had no Lasix at Royal Ascot.

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BRAD FREE
LADY ELI is qualified to upset the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her debut victory was better than looked (overcame traffic), her G3 score last out was a visually impressive romp. The 2-for-2 filly showed in her debut she can handle trouble and finish, her stretch run last out after racing in the clear was powerful. She enters with similar form as 2008 JF Turf winner Maram, who also was trained by Chad Brown. SUNSET GLOW is special. The favorite, she has been freshened and is working super for her first since sweeping the graded stakes in summer at Del Mar. She handles any footing, is expected to set the pace, and could be gone out front. Similar to her stablemate Hootenanny in the Juvenile Turf, this will be the first start beyond a sprint for SUNSET GLOW. Come and catch her. OSAILA arrives from Europe with major credentials. A G3 winner in July she scored a big win in a restricted stakes last out, and won three of her last four. QUALIFY skipped a big race in Europe when the ground came up soft. She will get "firm" for this, and would have been among the top choices until she drew post 14 in this one-mile race.