Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Emphatic can land Walsh his elusive victory
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LEXINGTON, Ky. – Trainer Brendan Walsh has had several years to seriously consider winning a race at the Breeders’ Cup, having entered at least one runner in each championship event since 2020. Some of his defeats have stung more than others, but Emphatic will have the chance to make up for all in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Friday at Keeneland.
“She’s coming in good order,” Walsh said. “She’s been doing great, actually, and everything has gone very smooth since the Alcibiades. She couldn’t be coming in here much better.”
This year’s Juvenile Fillies features a diverse field of 12 shipping in from across North America, many of whom seem to have improved at exactly the right time to take a shot in the Grade 1 event. Five are coming off graded stakes victories and three remain undefeated, but of these precocious contenders, Emphatic, with jockey Tyler Gaffalione aboard, is clearly most prepared to tackle 1 1/16 miles on dirt from post 10. As for Walsh, he’s as prepared as he has ever been.
Of the trainer’s 13 career starters at the Breeders’ Cup, none have come closer to winning than his first, Worldly, who finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon in 2013. That Grade 2 race was separated from the series the following year, just in time for Walsh to win it with Cary Street and Scuba in 2014 and 2016.
Walsh remembers the poor timing that cost him a potential Breeders’ Cup win in the 2010s, but of all his near-misses at the event, none weigh heavier than that of East Avenue, who went off as the 9-5 favorite in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished ninth. Emphatic has been listed at the same odds on the morning line in this year’s Juvenile Fillies.
“We’ve had a couple of disappointments with the juveniles, but hopefully we can rectify it on Friday,” Walsh said.
Unbeaten, and largely untested in three starts, Emphatic was pegged as a route-running filly shortly following a six-furlong debut victory at Colonial Downs. Walsh targeted the $100,000 Sorority at Monmouth Park, one of his earliest chances to try two turns on dirt with the 2-year-old filly, and she improved to win her stakes debut by 5 1/4 lengths.
The next step was obvious, as the filly continued her march to the Breeders’ Cup by winning 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades, a Grade 1 test at Keeneland, with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. She scored by 1 1/4 lengths over Summer Starlet, a Steve Asmussen trainee who might have been favored in the Juvenile Fillies if she had not been pulled out of contention.
Even without that estimable rival in the Breeders’ Cup, Emphatic will still have to deal with dangerous challengers coming off commanding victories elsewhere. Miss Monica, the 6 1/4-length winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante in early September, has had plenty of time to settle into training in Kentucky for Bob Baffert.
Instead of staying in California for a two-turn test in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita, Baffert decided to ship the Early Voting filly to Churchill Downs in late September, where she has trained up to her first route.
“I skipped the Oak Leaf with her [because] I just wanted to give her extra time,” Baffert said. “We’ll know if it was the right move when they turn for home, but she’s still growing.“
In two career starts at 6 1/2 and seven furlongs, Miss Monica has won by a combined 12 lengths, going completely unchallenged against her competition at Del Mar.
Baffert kept three fillies on the West Coast to run in the Oak Leaf on Oct. 3, but none came close to catching Domain Expansion, who rocketed home by seven lengths for trainer Leonard Powell. She entered that start a maiden, having finished second in her debut on turf at Del Mar.
“She belongs, considering how she won the prep race last time,” Powell said. “It’s the logical step. We went against the best of the West last time. Now, we have to go against the best of the East. We’ll see if she can step up again.”
While Walsh and Powell are looking for their first Breeders’ Cup victories, Baffert is currently tied with Aidan O’Brien for the most with 21. He won the Juvenile Fillies in 1998 and 2007.
Miss Monica is coming off the longest layoff in the field, having last run on Sept. 5, but Manuka Honey and Voyager are not far behind. Both last ran on Sept. 12, with the undefeated Manuka Honey winning the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs for Brian Lynch and Voyager winning the Grade 1 Natalma on turf at Woodbine for Mark Casse.
Voyager, unbeaten in two starts on the grass, is still looking for her first win on dirt. She finished second in both attempts on the surface earlier this year, including the $200,000 Schuylerville at Saratoga, but Casse has said he only switched surfaces to pursue two-turn opportunities.
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Casse also entered Lexi’s Charm, who earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure when she kicked clear by 12 lengths in a six-furlong allowance at Keeneland earlier this month.
Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox also entered a pair each in the Juvenile Fillies, and both trainers said their horses needed to improve. Cox entered the last-out maiden winner Foxiest and stakes-placed Scarlett Begonia, while Pletcher entered Life Changing and the maiden Badittude, both of whom are owned by Repole Stable.
Life Changing, the more volatile of Pletcher’s runners, won her Saratoga debut by seven lengths before disappointing in the Grade 1 Spinaway and $150,000 White Clay Creek at Delaware Park.
“Her first start was very impressive, and then we kind of got off track in the Spinaway,” Pletcher said. “We tried to regroup at Delaware, and I thought she ran an improved race, but still don’t feel like she’s performing to her capabilities. We were always optimistic she can handle more distance.”
Rum Twist and Revenge of the Sis, the second- and third-place finishers in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont, complete the field for Mark Hennig and George Weaver, respectively.
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