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Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Cave Rock, Forte run themselves into role of favorites

David Grening|Oct 12, 2022
Cave Rock/American Pharoah
Benoit Photo Cave Rock, with Juan Hernandez up, leads from gate to wire in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita.

Cave Rock and Forte likely established themselves as the first and second betting choices for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 4 at Keeneland with victories in Grade 1 stakes last weekend.

At Santa Anita, Cave Rock put forth another impressive display of speed to win the American Pharoah by 5 1/4 lengths over stablemates National Treasure, Hejazi, and Gandolfini, leading a 1-2-3-4 finish for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Cave Rock improved his record to 3 for 3 and now has two Grade 1 wins, having also taken the Del Mar Futurity.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2022: See DRF’s special section with top contenders, odds, comments, news, and more for each division

Baffert, who has won the Juvenile five times, anticipates sending both Cave Rock and National Treasure to the Juvenile.

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher’s audible to run Forte in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland rather than the Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct a week earlier paid dividends when Forte ran down a stubborn Loggins to win the $600,000 Futurity by a neck. Forte, a son of Violence, is also a two-time Grade 1 winner, having also taken the Hopeful at Saratoga.

Pletcher was impressed with Forte’s effort in the Futurity.

“The track seemed to be playing a bit toward speed,” Pletcher said. “He was as far back as eighth early on. He was able to progress down the backside and close really well.”

Pletcher, a two-time winner of the Juvenile, could also run Lost Ark in this year’s race. Lost Ark finished sixth in the Futurity with a troubled trip.

“Nothing seemed to go right during the race,” Pletcher said. “That was disappointing that he didn’t get to show his best because of the difficult trip he had, but he was still running on to the wire. So, he’s there. We can see how he trains and make a decision based on that.”

The Juvenile field is very much in flux. Trainer Brad Cox said Loggins and Instant Coffee, the second- and fourth-place finishers in the Breeders’ Futurity, could skip the race. In the case of Loggins, he won his maiden on Sept. 17 at Churchill and then came back three weeks later to run a hard race setting a contested pace in the Futurity.

“We’re thinking about not running him back in four weeks because that would be three races in seven weeks and we think he’s a quality horse and we’re not wanting to do too much with him too early,” said Cox, who noted discussions remain to be had with ownership. “We want to have a 3-year-old as well.”

Cox did say that Verifying, runner-up to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne, is now likely to run.

“He would probably be the one that’s a little more in play than the rest of them,” Cox said.

Trainer Steve Asmussen said Red Route One is now under consideration for the Juvenile after his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity, his first start on dirt after two turf tries.

The only others considered definite for the Juvenile are Awesome Strong, undefeated winner of the three-race Florida Sire Series at Gulfstream Park; Blazing Sevens, winner of the Champagne; and Curly Jack, who won the Grade 3 Iroquois. Congruent, winner of the off-the-turf Laurel Futurity, is being aimed at the Juvenile Turf, according to trainer Antonio Sano, but could be pre-entered for the Juvenile as well.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.

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