Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Cave Rock the early 4-5 favorite
Since 2008, trainers Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Brad Cox have combined to win eight of the 14 runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So, it’s not a surprise those four trainers account for six of the 12 pre-entrants in this year’s $2 million Juvenile to be run Nov. 4 at Keeneland.
Baffert, who has won four Juveniles over the last 14 years – and five overall – this year sends out two-time Grade 1 winner and probable favorite Cave Rock and potential third choice National Treasure. Pletcher, who won this race in 2010 and 2012, has pre-entered two-time Grade 1 winner and probable Juvenile second choice Forte as well as stakes winner Lost Ark.
Brown, who won the 2017 Juvenile with Good Magic, sends out one of that sire’s progeny, Blazing Sevens, the Grade 1 Champagne winner. Cox, who won the 2020 Juvenile at Keeneland with Essential Quality, will saddle Verifying, a half-brother to 13-time graded stakes winner Midnight Bisou.
Cave Rock, a son of 2016 BC Classic winner Arrogate, was made the 4-5 morning-line favorite by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona, who made the line for all five of the Breeders’ Cup 2-year-old races to be run on the Nov. 4 card.
Cave Rock’s brilliant speed has carried him to three victories, including blowout scores in the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah.
Forte, a son of Violence, is coming off a hard-fought head victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, giving him a race over the track and at the distance of the Juvenile. His stablemate Lost Ark finished a troubled sixth in the Futurity, but has trained satisfactorily for Pletcher, who will give the half-brother to Nest – pre-entered in the Distaff – a shot.
Luis Saez will ride Lost Ark, replacing Flavien Prat who rides Blazing Sevens, the upset winner of the Champagne on a sloppy track after failing to handle the Saratoga slop in the Hopeful where he was beaten 12 lengths by Forte.
Verifying finished second to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne after winning his debut on Travers Day at Saratoga.
Curly Jack, like Blazing Sevens a son of Good Magic, comes off a win in the Grade 3 Iroquois for trainer Tom Amoss.
:: Breeders' Cup Pre-Entry PPs Now Available - Exclusively with a BC Package
Awesome Strong, a son of Awesome Slew, is 4 for 4, having swept the three-race Florida Sire Stakes series at Gulfstream Park for trainer Jorge Delgado.
Hurricane J, a son of Nyquist, is 2 for 2, with both wins coming in sprints for trainer Paulo Lobo.
Three of the 12 pre-entrants have the Juvenile as a second preference. Tyler’s Tribe made it into the field for the Juvenile Turf Sprint and is expected to run there. Wound Up is ranked last on the preference list for the Juvenile Turf Sprint, which drew 26 pre-entrants and is limited to 12 starters. Thus, if his connections want to run in the Breeders’ Cup, it would likely have to be in the Juvenile.
Congruent, who has the Juvenile Turf as a first preference, is ranked third on the preference list and would need three defections to crack into that field. Congruent won the off-the-turf Laurel Futurity in his most recent start.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.