Breeders' Cup Friday: European shippers favored in all three turf races
LEXINGTON, Ky. – A dozen overseas juveniles are entered in the three Breeders’ Cup grass races Friday, and the morning line pegs a European shipper as favored in each of them. We had better take a thorough tour of the participants.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
Lady Hollywood, a 15-1 shot, drew the rail, while 3-1 morning-line favorite The Platinum Queen has the outside stall, post 12. In its four years of existence, the Juvenile Turf Sprint has attracted 20 European runners. None have won. After getting a third-place finish in 2018, they blanked in 2019, ran three-four in 2020, and last year got a second with Go Bears Go.
Now comes The Platinum Queen, showered with plaudits for finishing second to Highfield Princess, a 5-year-old mare who can win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and winning the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp, another race against older horses. In the Nunthorpe, The Platinum Queen got 24 pounds from Highfield Princess; the runner-up in the Abbaye carried 17 pounds more than she.
In between those two starts, The Platinum Queen finished second against 2-year-olds in the Flying Childers, a five-furlong race at York. She had no excuse losing to Trillium by a nose while finishing more than four lengths clear of the third horse. Trillium came into the race in good form but subsequently was eighth of 10 in the Group 1 Cheveley Park.
People seem to have forgotten Soldier’s Call. In 2018, Soldier’s Call won the Flying Childers by more than two lengths, then took on older rivals with a commendable third in the Abbaye. He came to Churchill Downs for the Juvenile Turf Sprint, started the 5-2 favorite, broke awkwardly, contested the pace, and faded to sixth.
Soldier’s Call had a lot of speed; The Platinum Queen has more. What she doesn’t have is experience racing around a turn, the bugaboo for nearly all the European juveniles that come to this race. Most European 2-year-old sprints are run down a straight course, and even doing morning work around a turn can’t truly prepare a youngster for the mad crush of a dozen horses dashing into Keeneland’s bend.
The Platinum Queen could be in for a rough go, and the first European winner of the Juvenile Turf Sprint you bet should not be the favorite.
The other three Euros – Dramatised, Mischief Magic, and Persian Force – are drawn in posts 4, 5, and 6. Dramatised developed early, winning her debut in April and the Queen Mary on June 15 at Royal Ascot. Her one race since came Aug. 18 in the Lowther Stakes, where she was fifth as the even-money favorite, her trainer, Karl Burke, suggesting she hadn’t stayed six furlongs.
Persian Force has talent and while tiring held third after making the lead a furlong into the Group 1 Middle Park, though he was no match for the top two. He’s faced the best 2-year-olds in Europe and won’t mind a shorter distance here, but like The Platinum Queen and Dramatised, he’s a front-running type in a speed-packed race. Neither his trainer, Richard Hannon Jr., nor Hannon’s father have found Breeders’ Cup success, combining to go 14-0-0-1.
Mischief Magic is a Godolphin horse trained by Charlie Appleby, who won three 2021 Breeders’ Cup races and has gone an eye-popping 11-6-1-0 in his Breeders’ Cup career. Initially, I was hard on this colt for failing to catch Persian Force in the Middle Park. Mischief Magic might not quite have run his race that day, never really relaxing for William Buick and doing his strongest work while traveling without cover in the middle stages.
He might prefer to be held farther off the lead and come with one big run – like he did racing around a right-handed turn at Kempton Park, where Mischief Magic roared home to win the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes by two lengths. Those were not great horses behind him, but Mischief Magic rallied furiously, and the fact Appleby moved this colt from a couple earlier straight-course turf wins to a turning race on an all-weather surface suggests he already was thinking about the Breeders’ Cup. The race sets up for him.
Lady Hollywood has a nice win around a bend on an all-weather track, and though that came against lowly competition, she also landed the Group 3 Prix d’Arenberg on Sept. 1, a race Soldier’s Call won in 2018. She and Mischief Magic are the best value among this group.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
It’s been a long while since a European won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and in the 14 editions of the race only two overseas horses won, Flotilla in 2012 and Chriselliam in 2013.
Here’s something bizarre: Nearly all the real early speed in this race is coming from across the pond. Basil Martini ran her best race leading but won’t be fast enough to come near the front after being saddled with post 14, a dreadful draw. Midnight Mile, also drawn poorly in 12, is dropping back into the first turn. But Spirit Gal, Manhattan Jungle, and Meditate should be among the leaders.
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Meditate clearly is the most obviously credentialed European. She developed early, winning her debut in April and the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, and after a break came back even stronger in late summer and early autumn. I have little doubt her second-place finish Sept. 11 going a straight seven furlongs in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud at The Curragh is the best single performance from anyone in this field. Meditate kicked hard with a quarter-mile left and opened a lead, but eventual winner Tahiyra, who was awesome on the day, always had her measured and ran down Meditate, who finished more than four lengths clear of third.
Here’s the question: Does Meditate have the stamina for this two-turn mile? Her sire, No Nay Never, gets sprinter/milers, her dam was a sprinter/miler, and Aidan O’Brien cut her back to six furlongs for the Cheveley Park Stakes after the Moyglare Stud. Meditate looks more willing to stalk the pace than Spirit Gal and Manhattan Jungle; she could get a good trip.
Spirit Gal would hold strong appeal if not for the presence of Manhattan Jungle, who likely compromises her chances of going wire to wire. A Charles Fipke homebred, Spirit Gal was rank in her early starts but has learned to settle, and while she definitely wants to lead, her finishing run has gotten stronger and stronger even stretching out to seven furlongs in her last start. There, going around a turn for the first time, she easily beat Cairo, a BC Juvenile Turf pre-entrant before staying home in Ireland, and Spirit Gal is worth a bet even with the chance she gets hooked and cooked.
I can’t understand why Manhattan Jungle isn’t in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Spirit Gal has broken like a rocket in her last two starts, but Manhattan Jungle consistently has shown gate speed in her many starts, all over five and six furlongs. She’s been on the go since early April and appears to have peaked a couple months ago.
Midnight Mile has done little wrong winning her first two, and in fact did a lot right capturing the Group 3 Oh So Sharp on Oct. 7 at Newmarket, where she had to weave in and out of heavy traffic to get up by a head. She should have plenty of improvement left in her and is a live price shot with a bad post.
Juvenile Turf
This is just the third time in this race’s history as few as two Europeans have started. In 2008, the two – Donativum and Westphalia – finished first and second, and in 2019, two Aidan O’Brien-trained runners ran out. Two years ago at Keeneland there were seven internationals, but Friday we find just Victoria Road for O’Brien and Silver Knott for Charlie Appleby.
Silver Knott will be the favorite; Victoria Road holds some appeal.
Silver Knott brings stronger form to this race than did his connections’ 2021 winner, Modern Games, and if Silver Knott handles American-style racing, he probably wins. In addition to holding his own with high-level company like Chaldean and Epictetus, the former a subsequent Group 1 winner, the latter second in a Group 1, Silver Knott twice has raced around a turn, albeit over all-weather surfaces. He has shown speed at times but seems likely to race from midpack after drawing well in post 3.
Silver Knott is the most likely winner, but O’Brien won this here in 2015 with Hit It a Bomb, who was far from obvious. Victoria Road is out of a sprinting mare who has produced sprinting offspring, and I wonder if connections assumed he’d be limited in distance, too. Instead, Victoria Road has improved going farther while racing in France.
At one mile, he won a listed stakes over Blue Rose Cen, who captured the Group 1 Prix Marcel-Boussac in early October, and going out to 1 1/8 miles on Sept. 17 at Chantilly, Victoria Road gamely won a Group 3 racing around a right-handed turn. He’s a plucky colt, though likely not quite the same class as Silver Knott.
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