Breeders' Cup Friday: DRF Plus stakes analysis

Breeders' Cup Distaff

Mike Watchmaker

ROYAL DELTA was merely second best behind Princess of Sylmar last time in the Beldame, but in retrospect, I wonder how tightly wound she was for that race. Royal Delta had only easy breezes going into the Beldame but has worked much sharper since. I envision Royal Delta rebounding much the way she did last year when she followed a loss in the Personal Ensign with one of the most impressive performances of her accomplished career winning the 2012 Beldame. BEHOLDER loves Santa Anita and had something in reserve when she beat her elders in the Zenyatta, but she will see severe pressure at some point from Royal Delta. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR was tremendous in the Beldame, but that was to be her season finale, only to have this engagement added on late. Often, schedule changes like this tend to backfire. AUTHENTICITY is a fine mare, but she isn’t as good as the top three.

Mike Welsch

There are only six horses in this field, but cases can be made for just about all of them. At her best, ROYAL DELTA is the one to beat, and she gave every indication she is ready to peak again on the big stage considering the way she’s been training up to the race. She must avoid a potential early conflict with the razor-sharp BEHOLDER, who certainly holds the home-court advantage. AUTHENTICITY was no match for the top choice in the Personal Ensign or for Beholder from off a relatively slow pace in the Zenyatta, but she continues to train extremely well and never runs a poor one. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR has been a win machine since the Oaks, but she tries the local surface for first time and must not regress off her outstanding performance in the Beldame.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Mike Watchmaker

Bobby’s Kitten is a real runner, but Europeans have won four of the six runnings of this race, so why fight it? GIOVANNI BOLDINI hails from the barn of Aidan O’Brien, who won the last two Juvenile Turfs. Giovanni Boldini’s two wins came on a synthetic surface at Dundalk, but his third in a Group 1 on turf two back at The Curragh makes him competitive with this group, and his favorable draw puts him in line for a sweet pocket trip. BOBBY’S KITTEN was most impressive in winning the Pilgrim in fast time and is by far the best U.S. hope. OUTSTRIP’s group stakes efforts in his last three were all good, but his Group 2 Champagne win two back was the best of them, as he romped despite a bad start. WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, the other O’Brien-trained entrant, also ran well in group stakes in his last three starts, all on turf.

Byron King

BASHART won the Grade 2 With Anticipation before returning with a second in the Grade 3 Bourbon. He ran well in defeat after being steadied early and falling farther behind than accustomed while racing on Polytrack. Some will avoid him due to the 13 hole, but with his natural speed and a fairly long run to the first turn, his post is probably a non-factor. BOBBY’S KITTEN was a dominant winner of the Grade 3 Pilgrim to improve his record to 2 for 3; difficult to fault, aside from being a short price, likely around 2-1 odds. GIOVANNI BOLDINI won 2 of 3 overseas and was Group 1-placed in his only defeat; most intriguing of the Euros. OUTSTRIP comes off a fine British campaign in which he won two races, including a Group 2. Unfortunately, he has broken slowly in two of four starts, which doesn’t bode well for an alert start first time in the U.S.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Mike Watchmaker

It was an inspired move bringing GOLDENCENTS back as a sprinter over the summer, and he ran quite well finishing second against older opponents three straight times. But now Goldencents stretches back out to two turns, and the fact that he won the Santa Anita Derby and Sham early this year routing over this track does jump out at you. He must be sent from the gate to get position from his tough outside post but is still the pick. HYMN BOOK’s third in the Kelso was sneaky good as he rallied willingly into a very slow pace; chance at a price. BRUJO DE OLLEROS also was compromised by the slow fractions when second in the Kelso and is much improved this year. VERRAZANO is talented and this distance might be a match, but the fields he’s beaten, save for the Wood Memorial, don’t really impress.

Dave Litfin

Post 10 is favorable for VERRAZANO, who is brilliant on his best day and prefers to run outside. His Grade 1 wins have come breaking toward the outside. His main early-pace opponents are Taptowne, who has given up leads frequently; Fed Biz, who has run best at Del Mar; and Alpha, who is not a good shipper. GOLDEN TICKET exhibits a favorable Beyer pattern, having been freshened off paired tops in early summer and returning with a classic “bid, hung” line over the track in the Awesome Again; sleeper. BRUJO DE OLLEROS took time to acclimate, but the Brazilian import arrives in peaking form after outfinishing Hymn Book in the Kelso, a race in which both were compromised by a slow pace on a speed-conducive track. GOLDENCENTS, along with Fed Biz, tries to become the Dirt Mile’s first stretch-out winner.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Mike Watchmaker

Only one European was successful in the five runnings of this race, but that was Flotilla last year; the Euros got a boost this fall when Testa Rossi brought her modest French form here and won the Miss Grillo, our fastest prep. AL THAKHIRA is the pick. She dominated in her first two starts in England, including a Group 2 last out, and is backed by a barn that is adept with shippers to this country. CHRISELLIAM was a big surprise when she won a Group 1 at Newmarket at this distance, but she is improving and very dangerous. VORDA won a Group 1 sprint at Newmarket in her last; the added distance is the question. TESTA ROSSI ran well in the Miss Grillo, albeit with a favorable setup. My Conquestadory won stakes in her first two starts over suspect opposition; dreadful post.

Dave Litfin

American-based runners have dominated the superfecta positions (17 of 20) through the first five runnings, but French invader Flotilla broke through to win at 11-1 last year. And seeing as those with the three fastest U.S. grass figures drew posts 12, 13, and 14, the lean is to the Europeans once again. In terms of their recent Racing Post Ratings, little separates VORDA, CHRISELLIAM, and AL THAKHIRA, who are preferred in that order. Vorda has won group stakes in France and England, although Chriselliam has an advantage in terms of experience at the distance and with left-hand turns. Al Thakhira didn’t beat much at Newmarket but may be set to improve in just her third start, whereas the other two have been running since the spring. TESTA ROSSI spotted the field a head start but still won the Miss Grillo in her U.S. debut.

Breeders' Cup Marathon

Mike Watchmaker

Foreign shippers have won three of the five Marathons, and I’m going with one of two such horses in here, LONDON BRIDGE. London Bridge won three straight in England this year going 10, 10, and 12 furlongs, and ran respectably in defeat in his last two. This is a 14-furlong test, and I like that he’s actually turning back in distance, having gone a furlong longer most recently. He’s an unknown on dirt, but he’s by Arch, so a successful surface switch is possible. WORLDLY was a respectable third to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned last time. The problem with Worldly is he doesn’t want to win. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT responded to blinkers in last out with the most decisive victory of his career; can contend. I liked CEASE in the 2011 Marathon, but he didn’t stay the trip. Still, he’s intriguing because his recent efforts are better than they appear on paper.

Byron King

Late-running INDIAN JONES, first or second in his last four races, came within a nose of winning the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 3 Greenwood Cup this summer at Parx Racing. He consistently performs at a high level and should get ample pace. CEASE won an optional claimer at Belmont on Oct. 10 and may work out a favorable stalking trip. A $100,000 claim this summer at Saratoga, he won a stakes and placed in three graded ones as a younger horse. WORLDLY earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for a third behind 2012 BC Classic winner Fort Larned in the Homecoming Classic, but typically runs Beyers in the 90s and 80s. Bred to like 1 3/4 miles but winless since summer 2011. SUNS OUT GUNS OUT ran fourth in a muddy Greenwood Cup and then returned to crush second-level allowance competition at Parx.