Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf wagering strategy

JUST THE JUDGE (#2, 5-1) may be dismissed by some horseplayers due to her 13-day turnaround from winning the E.P. Taylor at Woodbine into the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but the opinion here is that she is still going to run another one of her “A” races.

The plan all along by her connections was to wheel her back in the Breeders’ Cup if she ran well in the E.P. Taylor, and after being freshened after a third in the Beverly D. on Aug. 16, she is a little more apt to handle the short rest.

So don’t be surprised to see her drift up a tick or two from her morning line – which would make her an overlay.

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DAYATTHESPA (#4, 8-1) also looks like a major player, though her price is likely too generous at 8-1 on the morning line. She looks like lone speed, and such types almost always get bet down.

Price aside, she is a high-class filly, one capable of running Beyer Speed Figures in the 100s, and she should enjoy a great trip. The only criticism is that she hasn’t raced beyond 1 1/8 miles, and the Filly and Mare Turf is at 1 1/4 miles.

STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (#10, 3-1) won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last out, and she is a proven commodity at 1 1/4 miles. Long one of North America’s top grass mares, she has earned over $2.2 million and figures to be flying at the finish.

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As for DANK (#3, 5-2), the defending race winner, on-track reports suggest she looks well and has trained forwardly in recent months, but as the 5-2 favorite, there is little value in backing her off a two-race campaign in 2014. She has enough class to run competitively, but to assume she runs back to her peak form of 2013 seems risky.

My wagering strategy will be to back JUST THE JUDGE to win, and use her on top and below the other mentioned fillies in exactas.