Breeders' Cup: Europeans deserve look in four Saturday races - including Classic

[bc_video_id:309046:]ARCADIA, Calif. – European runners have legitimate chances in four races Saturday, including the $5 million Classic. Santa Anita’s pool-table-top turf course is nothing like any found in Europe, but trial and error has led capable overseas trainers willing to hit the road this late in the European flat season to understand which horses are likely to suit local conditions. Let’s take a look at some of them.

Filly and Mare Turf

Two Euros have been shipped for this race, Dank and Romantica. Dank is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and also is favored in English ante-post betting. Her qualifications are simultaneously slim and enticing, resting entirely on her sharp win in the Beverly D. Stakes at Arlington.

Interested parties are encouraged to rewatch that race to recall just how violently Dank accelerated when turned loose at the top of the stretch by Ryan Moore, who has a chance at a big Breeders’ Cup weekend. The performance was by far the best of her career, and it scarcely seems a coincidence the great leap forward came in Dank’s first start outside Europe. Given the amount of betting she took in the Beverly D., her connections – led by ace trainer Michael Stoute – must’ve had a strong inclination that two things would boost her form: Lasix and firm, American-style turf.

My take on Dank’s long layoff is that Stoute, given the superior U.S. performance and trusting himself to ready Dank off works, saw no point in wasting another European race. I’m also guessing that if Dank liked quickening on a moderately firm Arlington course, she will like the fast going at Santa Anita even better. Post 1 can be perilous, but Dank is a likely winner.

French filly Romantica merits respect. She likes firm turf far better than soft, and her form lines should be viewed in that light. Though we have no Dank-like knowledge of her American performance level, she also will be at least twice Dank’s price. This race reportedly has been Romantica’s goal for a couple months; she shouldn’t be ignored.

Turf

One Euro shipper – and one should be enough.

The Fugue looks like the nuts in the $3 million Turf. Point of Entry on his very best and without trouble could threaten her, but his long layoff leaves too great a question, and if I were forced to pick one horse to play to win Saturday, it either would be The Fugue or Artemis Agrotera in the Juvenile Fillies. An argument can easily be constructed that The Fugue, despite a third-place finish, was the best horse in the 2012 Filly and Mare Turf. An even easier argument to formulate is that she is a significantly stronger horse this year than last.

Jockey William Buick found himself bottled up on the rail here last November, but one does not get to be stable rider for trainer John Gosden by failing to learn lessons. Buick will keep The Fugue out of pockets this time, and the powerful sustained run she displayed in her last two starts, both important Group 1 wins, will carry her to victory Saturday.

Mile

It is a bad sign when even the home team is abandoning you, and that is what has happened to English invader Olympic Glory. British racing journalists and functionaries never are shy about touting their own during Breeders’ Cup week, but I have yet to hear one positive word concerning Olympic Glory, and his price to win the Mile has been raised by British bookmakers this week.

Few doubt Olympic Glory is a fine miler. His win two weekends ago in the QE II at Ascot and his near miss behind Moonlight Cloud in the Jacques le Marois this summer in France both were elite performances. What’s being questioned are two things: Olympic Glory’s suitability to Santa Anita conditions – tight turns and fast turf – and his ability to rebound so soon after a peak performance.

In a perverse way, the more this colt’s chances are dismissed, the more I want to like him. He starts without Lasix but with blinkers for just the second time, and the hood apparently made a significant difference. Richard Hughes, the jockey, described Olympic Glory this week as “lazy,” and also said he has more tactical speed than he has showed overseas. The Marois, while run down a straight course, was contested on fast-enough ground, and Olympic Glory had no trouble with it. Despite a demanding schedule, the horse appears to have held his weight, and his coat looks good. I can’t recommend a straight bet, but I will sprinkle some Olympic Glory plays in with Wise Dan and Silver Max.

Classic

Europeans don’t win the Classic on dirt. But still, Declaration of War is not without a chance. This race has been his year-end goal for a couple months now, and the Classic’s 1 1/4 miles almost certainly is his best distance. The pedigree is flexible, and early in his career Declaration of War won three races on a synthetic surface, meaning he is, at least, not all turf. Aidan O’Brien nearly won the 2000 Classic with Giant’s Causeway, and I was told this week that O’Brien, as he did with Giant’s Causeway, took Declaration of War to work on the track at Southwell, considered the most dirt-like of the overseas synthetic tracks. He is jockey Joseph O’Brien’s only mount of the Breeders’ Cup.

Planteur has a handful of things to recommend him as a gimmicks bomb: 10 furlongs is his game, he has run well on synthetic, his trainer is very good, and he finished second-to-last in the Prix Dollar, his last start before the Classic. The last second-to-last Dollar finisher to try the Classic at Santa Anita? The race’s 1993 winner, Arcangues.