Breeders’ Cup Distaff wagering strategy

Clearly, any discussion of the 2014 running of Friday's Breeders' Cup Distaff has to revolve around impressions of UNTAPABLE (#10), who will go into the gate as the favorite. She has enjoyed an exceptional season, winning 5 of 6 starts, with her only loss coming against males in the Grade 1 Haskell. She has tactical speed, is training very well, and she comes into this off a win in her latest.

Those are the positives. Here are the negatives:

Taking a short price on a 3-year-old meeting older rivals for the first time is almost never a solid proposition, regardless of how deep into the season it is. UNTAPABLE has been impressive, sure, but it's not a slight on anyone to say the rest of the 3-year-old filly division has underwhelmed. When she stepped out of the ranks, she was no threat, and while a strong bias hindered her chances there, she was not as overpowering a winner as was expected in the Cotillion. She will be on most of my tickets because of the respect she's earned, but this is hardly a strong play, given the expected price.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds

CLOSE HATCHES (#11) is the other likely to take a good deal of money, and she's another who figures to be an underlay. She ran poorly in the Spinster last time, and though she faced some early pressure in that race she was certainly not under the gun. She has won from off the pace in the past, but she certainly appears to be a filly who is at her best when close-up in the initial stages, and the presence of other speed in this field – to her inside – could mean she does not get an ideal trip. It also means the fractions could be quick, and that scenario favors the closers. That's the way I'll lean when seeking out a key on top.

DON'T TELL SOPHIA (#7) might be the horse to fear in the lane. Her top Beyer Speed Figures don't match up well with the best figures the two favorites have posted, but she also has not gotten the best of setups in recent tries. That figures to change in the Distaff, with BELLE GALLANTEY (#4), CLOSE HATCHES and TIZ MIDNIGHT (#2) likely to become engaged early on. The distance seems ideal, and with race flow in her favor and value (5-1 on the morning line) on her side she merits a long look.

:: DRF Live: Real-time updates from the Breeders’ Cup, including live video coverage

I'll make a win bet on DON'T TELL SOPHIA, and I'll use her in exactas and key her in trifectas with UNTAPABLE, CLOSE HATCHES, and longshot L'AMOUR DE MA VIE (#1), who could fall into a nice trip. She's untested on dirt, and she comes off a dull effort in her most recent, but she seems to have the right running style and she certainly is the right price. I'll use DON'T TELL SOPHIA under those three as well and also box that trio in case DON'T TELL SOPHIA doesn't run her race for some reason.