Breeders' Cup Distaff: Nitrogen, Fully Subscribed standout in field of seven Grade 1 winners
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LEXINGTON, Ky. – Since it was inaugurated in 1984, some of the most memorable editions of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff have ended with an all-time great being pushed to her limit by a natural rival, to the point that their names become indelibly tied together. Personal Ensign had Winning Colors in 1988. Beholder had Songbird in 2016.
In this year’s edition of the $2 million race on Saturday at Keeneland, it’s distinctly possible that Nitrogen and Fully Subscribed will have one another. The top contenders are clear standouts in a field that includes seven Grade 1 winners, with Nitrogen listed as the 6-5 morning-line favorite.
“She’s doing great,” trainer Mark Casse said. “She knows this is the Breeders’ Cup. She changes as soon as the purple saddle towel goes on.”
Though they debuted around the same time and have spent significant portions of their careers in New York, it took nearly two years for the 4-year-old fillies to cross paths. Nitrogen, once a budding turf star for Casse, took nearly a year to win her first stakes on dirt, while Fully Subscribed missed much of her 3-year-old campaign before quickly rising through the ranks for Chad Brown.
They met for the first time in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Saratoga in June, where Nitrogen drubbed Fully Subscribed and four more stragglers by 12 3/4 lengths. Already the reigning Distaff runner-up, that victory in New York sent the Casse trainee to new heights as the undisputed leader of the division.
Encouraged by the 113 Beyer Speed Figure she earned against female rivals, Casse entered Nitrogen against males next time out in the Grade 1 Whitney, where she finished second behind Sovereignty. Back against females in September, she was not quite as sharp in the Grade 2 Beldame at Belmont, but she easily handled four rivals to win by 2 3/4 lengths.
“We were training without knowing where we were going, and I didn’t expect her to be at her very best” after the Whitney, Casse said. “But she ran well. It was a different race, a one-turn mile and an eighth. She was probably a little confused by it as well, but it’s put her where she is today.”
In the time it took Nitrogen to cement her new status over the summer, Fully Subscribed came a long way for Brown, putting her distant finish in the Ogden Phipps far behind her.
“She’s improved, but also she just didn’t run to her capability” in the Ogden Phipps, Brown said. “I’m not really sure why, but she’s certainly done nothing wrong since.”
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After winning the Grade 2 Shuvee, the rising star romped home by 9 3/4 lengths in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga in August. While Nitrogen rested after her race against the boys earlier that month, Fully Subscribed sent her warning shot in the form of a 106 Beyer Speed Figure.
Just as Nitrogen took an easy prep in the Beldame, Fully Subscribed got the job done against two rivals in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland earlier this month.
“I love the fact she ran a good race over the track, impressive race,” Brown said. “She has some experience here. She’s settled in and didn’t have to ship. She has a lot of things going for her.”
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Splendora, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner last year for trainer Bob Baffert, was expected to be a potential spoiler to the top pair, but the Breeders’ Cup announced Thursday afternoon that she will scratch. She is joined by the Jorge Abreu-trained filly Scottish Lassie, who scratched Wednesday morning and will miss the Distaff for a second straight year.
Even without two potential pacesetters in the race, shortening the field to seven fillies and mares, the speedy Nitrogen is still likely to be pressured near the front end on Saturday. Before she can deal with Fully Subscribed, who is expected to stalk for Brown from post 4, the Casse-trained favorite will first have to handle several front-running outsiders sticking around for a chance to steal the race.
Immersive and Super Corredora, the 2024 and 2025 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, could both have a say in the early pace scenario after recent front-running efforts. Brad Cox said Immersive will have to dramatically improve after back-to-back defeats against Fully Subscribed and Splendora.
“She’s been in a few short fields her last two runs,” Cox said Tuesday. “I’m hoping she can get a good trip. She’ll need one. She likes Keeneland, she’s a Grade 1 winner here as a 2-year-old. But we need to have things work out.”
Super Corredora, the only horse shipping from the West Coast, returned from a nearly seven-month layoff and won the Grade 2 Zenyatta at Santa Anita for trainer John Sadler last month. She was not pressured on the lead that day and will likely have more company Saturday.
Deep closers Measure and Regaled could both stand to benefit if the pace melts down in the late stages. Last year, Regaled won the Grade 3 Delaware Handicap for Whit Beckman before closing from 11th to finish third in the Distaff at Del Mar. She won the same prep at Delaware Park earlier this month.
“We ran against a pretty heavy speed bias last year and she made an incredible closing move,” Beckman said. “We’re hoping, with more speed signed on this year, we can hopefully be the benefactors.”
Measure, Casse’s other filly in the field, is coming off two Grade 1 tries against other 3-year-old fillies. After nearly pulling off a 10-1 upset in the Grade 1 Alabama, she had a much tougher trip going 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx Racing.
“Her form cycle has come along very well,” Casse said. “She’s getting older, maturing, and if there is a lot of pace and it falls apart, she’s going to come running.”
Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said his ambitions for Eunomia grew considerably after she scored a 12-1 upset in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch in August. Though she scratched from the Delaware Handicap earlier this month, Joseph said she has trained well enough to proceed without a prep.
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