Breeders' Cup Distaff: Heavily favored Nitrogen likely won't be Casse's only runner
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Nine minutes before Nitrogen cruised home to win the Grade 2 Beldame at Belmont Park last Friday, trainer Mark Casse said all three of his candidates for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff remain in play. If all continues as planned, he could have the overwhelming favorite in the championship event and one of the few fillies capable of taking her down.
In three starts since an upset defeat in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap in April, Nitrogen has emphatically established herself as the best female dirt runner in the country. After crushing a strong group in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps by 12 3/4 lengths, she took on the boys in the Grade 1 Whitney and finished second behind Sovereignty.
It remains true that Casse’s star filly, who finished second in the Distaff last year, has never won a Grade 1 outside Saratoga, but it is impossible to ignore her recent results. Her 2 3/4-length Beldame victory at Belmont was a leisurely prep, and this year’s championship event at Keeneland will run through her.
But if anyone dares to go against the heavy favorite in October, they might not need to search for long. Casse is blessed with fillies on the dirt this year, and while Nitrogen was dominating older rivals, Counting Stars was flying up the ranks in her own right.
Much like her stablemate, the 3-year-old filly came alive at Saratoga this year, improving off a third-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks to win the Grade 1 Acorn and Grade 1 Coaching Club Americas Oaks. She battled late in the Grade 1 Alabama, but the 1 1/4-mile distance proved too taxing and she faded to third.
Despite the recent setback, many still regard Casse’s younger star as the best 3-year-old filly in the country.
Casse also said he has not ruled out Measure, who finished ahead of Counting Stars in the Alabama and nearly sprung a 10-1 upset. She came back in the Grade 1 Cotillion but was arguably traveling too short at 1 1/16 miles.
The greatest threat to Casse’s trio, by far, is expected to be Fully Subscribed, who has improved in three straight graded stakes starts for Chad Brown. She has delivered a career-best effort in two starts since Nitrogen soundly defeated her in the Phipps.
When Casse opted to face male rivals in the Whitney, Brown took full advantage with Fully Subscribed in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. The 4-year-old filly took a massive step forward to win by 9 3/4 lengths over Scottish Lassie, a Distaff contender she had previously beaten by a half-length in the Grade 2 Shuvee. She earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure.
Beyond the strong New York scene, Splendora, the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner, has established herself as a two-turn machine in an impressive 5-year-old campaign for Bob Baffert. She has won three straight Grade 2 races at 1 1/16 miles, earning a 100 Beyer in the Molly Pitcher and Locust Grove.
Regaled, the third-place finisher in the Distaff last year, and Eunomia are among a group of hopefuls who were delayed by rain when the Grade 3 Delaware Handicap was postponed last weekend. The race will be run this Saturday instead.
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