Breeders' Cup Distaff analysis

MIKE WATCHMAKER

UNTAPABLE ran against the grain of the track when she won the Cotillion most recently, an effort that is better than it appears on paper. She was used early to stay close so as to not be completely compromised by the bias. She hadn’t run a representative race in three months. In the Haskell, she was severely compromised by a profound speed bias at Monmouth. With a lot of early speed here, Untapable can revert to her best style: drop back and make one run. TIZ MIDNIGHT was as game as can be when second to Beholder in the Zenyatta and is in career form. She’s speed but doesn’t require the lead. IOTAPA broke slowly and never really got untracked when third in the Zenyatta. She is capable of better. CLOSE HATCHES was the best in her division most of the year but was shockingly empty in the Spinster and might be past her peak. BELLE GALLANTEY won’t be walking on the lead like she did in the Beldame.

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds

MIKE WELSCH

UNTAPABLE , undefeated against females this year, had little chance over a speed-favoring strip when beaten by males in the Haskell. She overcame an inside-biased strip to win the Cotillion at Parx. She has made a terrific impression here all week. DON’T TELL SOPHIA is in peak form and should find enough pace to run at in this lineup. She may have the best chance of upsetting Untapable. RIA ANTONIA dueled for the lead and held gamely behind Don’t Tell Sophia in the Spinster. She finished second and was placed first over this strip a year ago in the Juvenile Fillies. She doesn’t need the lead. Blinkers appear to have made a big difference in her form. TIZ MIDNIGHT extended Beholder before settling for second in the Zenyatta. She is drawn inside the other speed and may prove the one to catch, especially if the track favors front-runners, as it did on Day 1 of the 2013 Cup.

:: Untapable looks to cap breakout season

BRAD FREE

Kentucky Oaks winner UNTAPABLE has been stabled at Santa Anita for the past month; she has thrived in training. She enters the Distaff as a legitimate favorite, comfortably drawn near the outside in a race that should unfold at a solid pace. A three-time G1 winnre this year, her workout Oct. 19 was super, she looks and acts like a confident and content filly. She is likely to produce the best race of her stellar campaign; her only loss was a troubled trip vs. males. One possible concern is her off-the-pace style over a track that recetnly produced few off-the-pace winners at two turns. CLOSE HATCHES was poised to start as the favorite until her uncharacteristic misfire at Keeneland. She finished off the board at odds-on. No visible alibi, but she has trained well since. If one subpar effort can be forgiven, she has a license to win. She finished second in the Distaff a year ago, and has more speed than the top choice. RIA ANTONIA looms the knockout. Winner (via dq) of the Juvenile Fillies a year ago, she ran the race of her career last out when blinkers were added. She posted back-to-back bullet works since, and might still be on an improving pattern. Bombs away.