Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile wagering strategy

As if he needed any help, defending Dirt Mile titlist GOLDENCENTS drew the rail with a short run to the first turn. He cleared for the lead from post 11 last year, and while he was helped by a speed bias, it’s also true that he set a sizzling pace. He has run only four times this year, beginning with a huge effort in the Met Mile, and comes in off the same trio of races in Southern California as last year. While he was run down late in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, it took a last quarter in 23.06 seconds from Rich Tapestry to do it.

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PANTS ON FIRE was ruined by the pronounced rail bias when caught wide early in this race last year. He will be more forwardly placed from a better post this time, and comes in razor sharp after taking a two-turn sprint at Charles Town, followed by a fast work.

TAPITURE and VICAR’S IN TROUBLE are the lone 3-year-olds, and their respective outfits have already won Dirt Miles with Tapizar ($32.60) and Furthest Land ($44.60). For what it’s worth, Tapizar’s penultimate race going into the 2012 Dirt Mile for Steve Asmussen also took place at Mountaineer in early August, when he took the West Virginia Governor’s Handicap. I like the fact that he has been given ample time to acclimate to Santa Anita.

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WAGERING STRATEGY: Assuming he breaks cleanly, Goldencents will be hard to stop as perhaps the most likely winner of any Breeders’ Cup race. However, since he has not broken in the first half of the field in any of his last three starts, there’s at least the possibility someone like Vicar’s in Trouble or Fed Biz could wind up on the lead.

For pick four purposes, Goldencents is my lone “A” horse.

The “B” team consists of Pants On Fire and Tapiture.

If Vicar’s in Trouble wins as a “C,” I will be on thin ice in the surrounding legs, which seemingly offer better spread potential.