Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Two turns, short stretch add layer of unpredictability
LEXINGTON, Ky. – Before delving into the field for the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, let’s get a few things out of the way. This year’s Breeders’ Cup is being held at Keeneland, which means the $1 million Dirt Mile will be run around two turns and the race will end at the so-called “first” finish line. Look for the bright red lollipop at the sixteenth pole.
That unusual configuration bears noting. Most big-time one-mile dirt races in the U.S. are run at one turn, straight out of a chute and down a long backstretch. The Keeneland mile gives a horse a mere 460 feet to get into position for the first turn. After entering the stretch, it’s only 865 feet to the red lollipop – less than three-sixteenths of a mile.
“It depends on the horse,” said Brad Cox, the trainer of Dirt Mile entrant Cyberknife, when asked the difference between a one-turn mile and a two-turn mile. “I can’t answer it unless you give me a horse to talk about.”
How about Knicks Go? Cox won the 2020 Dirt Mile at Keeneland with Knicks Go, a brilliantly fast runner and future Horse of the Year who led every step of the way en route to a 3 1/2-length victory. “Knicks Go was clearly better around two turns,” Cox said. “And that’s because he never slowed down in the turns. He was as fast on his left lead as he was his right lead. So he ended up winning his races going into the far turn, where he just kind of cruised on his left lead around the turn while everyone else was kind of chasing. That’s how he was able to get away.”
The 5-2 morning-line favorite in this year’s Dirt Mile is Cody’s Wish, a winner of six of his last seven races, including his Breeders’ Cup prep, the Forego. The Forego was run at seven furlongs at Saratoga, around one turn. The 4-year-old Curlin colt beat top sprinter Jackie’s Warrior in that race and earned a field-best 112 Beyer Speed Figure.
The other five wins in the string were at a mile. And around one turn.
That second-place finish? A two-turn Grade 3 stakes race run at 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay. Cody’s Wish got beat a neck after getting outkicked to the wire by Scalding, who in his next start won the Ben Ali Stakes at Keeneland. Around two turns.
“When you are successful at one thing and you have something that you haven’t proven, you always have to wonder about it,” said Bill Mott, the trainer of Cody’s Wish.
Cody’s Wish is a stalker, and he’s capable of unleashing a strong quarter-mile run. The question is whether he will be able to build up enough speed given the configuration and dynamics. He’ll break from post 7.
“For a big horse like he is, it’s a matter of him not getting jostled and being able to get position on the first turn,” Mott said. “You don’t want to be parked way out, you don’t want to get bumped, and you don’t want to have to check.”
In a field packed with stalkers and closers, it’s hard to predict who in the Dirt Mile field will go to the lead. It might be Pipeline, who’s back for more in the Dirt Mile after battling with Jackie’s Warrior for the lead in the Forego. New rider Flavien Prat is aboard for trainer Chad Brown.
Another candidate for the early lead could be Slow Down Andy (30-1), one of four 3-year-olds entered in the Dirt Mile, along with Simplification (15-1), Gunite (7-2), and Cyberknife (9-2). Three-year-olds have won three of the last five Dirt Miles, including Life Is Good last year. Life Is Good is the distant second choice in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Three-year-olds get a negligible three-pound allowance.
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Cox had considered Cyberknife for the Classic, but Flightline understandably scared him off. A son of Gun Runner, Cyberknife has been knocking heads with the best of his generation for the entire year, and this will be his first start against older horses.
Cyberknife hasn’t run at a distance shorter than 1 1/16 miles since Nov. 5 of last year, and he doesn’t seem to prefer a particular style of running. It’s hard to predict where he’ll land in the pace scenario.
“Break well, be close, and then we’ll see how it goes,” Cox said. “I know we want to be in good position at the top of the stretch.”
Gunite, who has won four of his last five starts, will be stepping up in class off two victories in ungraded stakes. But he won the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga in July and then finished second in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens there in August. He also won the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga last year.
Gunite will be stretching out to a mile for the first time this year and running at two turns for the first time in his 12-race career. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons.
Laurel River (9-2), a lightly raced 4-year-old trained by Bob Baffert, prepped for the Dirt Mile in the Aug. 27 Pat O’Brien, a seven-furlong race run around one turn at Del Mar. He won authoritatively, posting a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. In his only other start this year, he easily won a two-turn allowance race at Del Mar. He’s the hot horse, he’s fresh, and he’s been working fast.
“He’s getting better,” said Baffert. “I think he’ll be very competitive in here.”
Then there’s Senor Buscador (12-1). Plagued by minor injuries after rehabbing from surgery to remove a knee chip early last year, the son of Mineshaft comes into the Dirt Mile off an impressive win in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs. The Ack Ack was run out of the chute at a one-turn mile.
Trainer Todd Fincher says Senor Buscador is finally learning how to break from the gate. He’ll leave out of post 10.
“He usually would put himself at such a disadvantage coming out of the gate,” Fincher said. “He’d spot the field three, four, five lengths.”
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