Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Complexity fine at distance but unproven at two turns
Only 72 miles separate Keeneland from Churchill Downs, but when a Breeders’ Cup comes to Kentucky, it might as well be another universe when it comes to the $1 million Dirt Mile.
At Churchill Downs, the Dirt Mile is run around one turn. At Keeneland, it’s a two-turn race. The ability to handle that configuration looms large over Saturday’s sixth race, because the acknowledged Dirt Mile favorite, the speedy Complexity, is unproven around two turns, while his most serious challenger, Knicks Go, comes off a track-record-setting performance going two turns at Keeneland.
No doubt Complexity can handle a mile. He comes off a dynamic victory at that distance in the Kelso, earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 110. But that race was at Belmont Park, where a mile race is around one turn. Complexity has tried two turns just once previously in his nine-race career, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile two years ago at Churchill Downs, and it was an abject failure, as he finished 10th, but with a significant excuse.
“He came out with bucked shins bad. Just throw the race out,” said his trainer, Chad Brown. “I’m not saying he was going to win – Game Winner was super impressive – but he wasn’t just going to drop back on the turn like that. The horse was sore.”
The other potential Breeders’ Cup option for Complexity would have been cutting back to six furlongs for the Sprint, but Brown said the Dirt Mile is a better fit.
“I just think that six is way too quick for him,” Brown said. “Two turns or not, I’m all in on the mile decision.”
Complexity also must overcome a wide draw, having landed post 10 in a field of 12. The first turn comes up quick. The race begins at the regular finish line – though there is a significant run-up from where the gate is placed, and – owing to Keeneland being 1 1/16 miles in circumference – ends at what is usually the sixteenth pole.
That Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in which Complexity flopped? The runner-up was Knicks Go, that day a 40-1 longshot for Ben Colebrook, on Saturday one of many live tickets for new trainer Brad Cox, for whom Knicks Go is 2 for 2. Following an injury early in the year, Knicks Go returned from a 7 1/2-month layoff Oct. 4 at Keeneland and crushed a third-level allowance field going 1 1/16 miles while earning a career-best Beyer Figure of 107. Drawn well in post 5, proven at two turns, and at a track where he has finished first or second in 3 of 4 starts, he looks formidable.
“He loves Keeneland,” said Cox, who said the five-week spacing to the Dirt Mile is ideal. “We think he’ll be a factor.”
Cox also sends out Owendale, the Pimlico Special runner-up, who is marooned in post 12.
Art Collector, who drew the rail, cuts back to a mile after finishing fourth in the Preakness, and he’s returning to the scene of his biggest victory, in the Blue Grass in July. He encountered some traffic in the Preakness and never really looked comfortable over the Pimlico surface.
“Down the backside he was kind of stuck between horses, really couldn’t get himself out of there,” said his trainer, Tommy Drury Jr. “Flattened out a little in the drive, struggled a little with the racetrack.”
War of Will, in likely the final start of his career before going to stud, moves back to dirt after racing exclusively on turf in three starts this year, all at one mile. He is 1 for 7 since winning the 2019 Preakness, but he looked sharp in his final work last Saturday. He drew post 4.
“He’s trained so well on the dirt we felt we had to give him another shot,” his trainer, Mark Casse, said at a media briefing Wednesday. “It’s a tough field. I thought his post was the most crucial post position of our six, and he got a great post.”
Sharp Samurai is a live longshot. Though he’s raced almost exclusively on grass for more than three years, he was an excellent second to Maximum Security in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar going 1 1/4 miles, a distance beyond optimum. Having proven himself on dirt, and now at his favorite distance, he has a chance to give Irad Ortiz Jr. his second straight upset in this race, following Spun to Run a year ago.
Bret Calhoun doubles up with Mr. Money, who won the one-turn Ack Ack going a mile at Churchill Downs last time out, and Silver Dust, a good third in the Alysheba in a race where the early pace did his late kick no favors. Silver Dust has finished second in both his prior starts at Keeneland.
Mr Freeze also likes Keeneland. He won the Fayette over the track last time out to give him a record of two wins and a second in three starts. The Fayette was an improvement over his previous two starts, including a sixth in the Alysheba.
“Had a great start to the year, little lull in the summer, back on his game,” said his trainer, Dale Romans.
Rushie heads back around two turns after his late-running victory in the one-turn Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He was third to Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver earlier in the year in the Blue Grass.
“Seemed like he handled the track that day, but he was stuck in no-man’s land from the seven-eighths to the three-eighths,” said his trainer, Michael McCarthy. “It was a better-than-looked effort.”
Pirate’s Punch, the first Breeders’ Cup starter for Grant Forster, comes off a victory in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth.
Jesus’ Team, the first Breeders’ Cup starter for Jose D’Angelo, was a distant third in the Preakness, beating Art Collector by a head.
Pingxiang, who has run against moderate competition in Japan, is the lone also-eligible and has until Saturday at 8 a.m. Eastern to draw in.
– additional reporting by David Grening