Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile analysis

Mike Watchmaker

TAPITURE ran against the grain of the track when a rallying second to Bayern in the Pennsylvania Derby last time out and was much the best to get up in the West Virginia Derby two starts back after significant stretch trouble. Tapiture is an improving 3-year-old, as evidenced by his ascending Beyer Speed Figures, and he will get pace to rally into. GOLDENCENTS won this race last year, capitalizing on a strong speed bias. He’s no slouch under fair conditions, but he does often pull himself up in the stretch. GOLDEN TICKET, second in this race last year while against the bias, also hangs a bit but can get involved late if the pace is contested. FED BIZ , a sharp second in the Awesome Again, wants the lead when he goes two turns and isn’t nearly as effective when he doesn’t have it. That means he might hook up early with Goldencents.

Dave Litfin

:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds

As if he needed any help, defending Dirt Mile titlist GOLDENCENTS drew the rail with a short run to the first turn. He cleared for the lead from post 11 last year, and while he was helped by a speed bias, he set a sizzling pace. He has run only four times this year, beginning with a huge effort in the Met Mile, and appears primed after an impressive workout on his home track last week. PANTS ON FIRE was ruined by the pronounced inside bias when caught wide early in this race last year. He will be more forwardly placed from a better post this time and comes in razor sharp after taking a two-turn sprint at Charles Town, followed by a fast work. TAPITURE and VICAR’S IN TROUBLE are the lone 3-year-olds, and their respective outfits have already won the Dirt Mile with Tapizar ($32.60) and Furthest Land ($44.60).

:: Difficult to deny Goldencents in bid for a repeat

Brad Free

GOLDENCENTS looks like a slam dunk in the Dirt Mile. He is the speed of the field, in peak form and racing over surface that rewards his style. He won this race a year ago, stretches out from a sharp runner-up in a G1 sprint, and looked super in his final workout. With a clean break from the rail, he should be long gone at a short price. He would be the first winning favorite in the Dirt Mile, and the first favorite to hit the board since the first running of the race in u2007. FED BIZ gave Shared Belief a fight last out, runner-up in a G1. 'BIZ has tactical speed, is likely to be positioned closest to the favorite, and would get first run if the favorite misfires. TAPITURE has improved as the season unfolded. He has worked well since arriving at Santa Anita late last month and benefits by the cutback from nine furlongs to one mile. If the top pair engage in a duel, Tapiture could be along from the back at a price. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE could be alone in third, behind the top pair. That would be a perfect trip.