Breeders' Cup Classic wagering strategy

The undefeated Shared Belief is going to be the clear-cut favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and even his detractors (Are there any? How could there be?) would probably concede that it is impossible to rule him out of the number, whether you are engaging in horizontal or vertical wagers. Even if he might be more comfortable on synthetic tracks than the sort of dirt surface he will race on Saturday – and that is very open to debate – Shared Belief is just so good that it’s hard to envision him not being involved in the Classic outcome in a major way.

That said, I found Tonalist to be an almost equally appealing option in the Classic. The blinkers came off Tonalist last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he relaxed, and reverted to the one-big-run-from-off-the-pace running style that was probably always his most effective approach. Tonalist responded with a going-away score, the best performance of his career, and that includes a win in the Belmont Stakes.

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It’s anyone’s guess how a deep closing style will play at Santa Anita Saturday until we actually see some races. But we saw some indications in Wednesday’s results that a Santa Anita main track that has been strongly speed favoring all meet might be evening out. Let’s hope so, though this is something that needs monitoring going forward. In the meantime, we do know the Classic pace will be lively, and quite possibly contested, and that will help Tonalist. At their disparity in odds, and given that I feel they are very close going into this race, I had to go with the higher priced Tonalist over Shared Belief. But in actual multi-race wagers, I will use both in equal strength.

I feel differently about the other two big 3-year-olds in this Classic, Bayern and California Chrome, and consider them vulnerable. Bayern is an immensely talented colt who is much more than the creation of strong track biases. On the other hand, Bayern’s big scores in the Pennsylvania Derby and Haskell – performances that will cause him to attract plenty of money – were greatly assisted by favorable track biases. If the track leans even on Saturday, then Bayern gets no assists, and thus will be an underlay worth playing against.
California Chrome, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, was trapped down inside in his return in the Pennsylvania Derby.

There isn’t any remaining doubt that California Chrome is far more comfortable racing outside of horses, and he’ll get his wish after drawing post 13. Still, if he is to contend, California Chrome will have to run his best race yet – better than his Derby, Preakness, or his Santa Anita Derby over the track – and I doubt he has that sort of forward move in him.

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Other potential options underneath Tonalist and Shared Belief include Zivo and Cigar Street.

I have begun to take an anti-Zivo position. As a respected handicapper friend pointed out to me (it is always worthwhile to solicit other opinions you respect, if just to look at things from a different angle), Zivo might not be a true two-turn horse. Zivo had significant trouble when second behind Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but that was not a true two-turn race. He has never been particularly effective at Saratoga, where he has had to go two full turns. And while Zivo has had success going two turns on the inner track at Aqueduct, he just might simply be better than those winter horses.

Cigar Street, on the other hand, is intriguing. It is uncertain whether Cigar Street is actually good enough to contend, but that’s why you’ll get a price in the vicinity of 12-1. However, Cigar Street did improve to win second time back off a long absence, and is in line to sit a terrific trip stalking Bayern and Moreno, and getting first run. That makes Cigar Street worth using underneath.