Breeders' Cup Classic analysis

MIKE WATCHMAKER

I have this down to TONALIST and SHARED BELIEF , and I’m going with Tonalist, the better price. Tonalist ran his best race yet when he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, demonstrating that his preferred running style is as a one-run closer. It’s guesswork how that style will play at Santa Anita on Saturday, but at least he will get a lively pace to shoot at. Shared Belief showed that he has guts to go with his immense ability when he won the Awesome Again over the track after an eventful trip; short price the only drawback. It’s questionable if CIGAR STREET is good enough, but he did improve the second time back, and he projects to get a sweet first-run trip stalking Bayern and Moreno. BAYERN ’s big wins in the Pennsylvania Derby and Haskell were bias-aided, but he’s extremely talented. CALIFORNIA CHROME will improve on his return but needs a career-best effort to contend.

:: Strength of Breeders' Cup Classic is in 3-year-olds

MIKE WELSCH

I am taking a stand, at square prices, that the improving older horses CIGAR STREET and ZIVO might be good enough to handle the best of this year’s 3-year-old division, especially if able to trip out behind speedsters Moreno, who has got to go from the inside, and Bayern. Cigar Street has shown exceptional promise throughout an injury-plagued career. He proved he can win from off the pace when he overcame a tough trip to win at 1 3/16 miles last year. He looked tremendous on the track here Wednesday. Zivo has continued to improve with every race and gives the impression that he could be sitting on his best yet. SHARED BELIEF is very talented but is facing the toughest test of his career. He is perhaps worth siding against at a short price. V. E. DAY had little chance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but is training well and should come running, especially if the pace is as hot as expected.

BREEDERS' CUP 2014: Post positions and odds

BRAD FREE

TONALIST emerged as the top 3-year-old in the East; his Jockey Club Gold Cup victory was outstanding. He had trouble, waited for room, split horses and won going away. It was an impressive win by a developing 3-year-old whose best races should still be in front of him.. SHARED BELIEF emerged as the top 3-year-old in the West. The gelding overcame a tough trip (carried wide) to win the Awesome Again and remain unbeaten after seven starts. Proven at a mile and one-quarter, able to extract himself from trouble, and proven in a stretch battle, he is the real deal. MORENO should get a good trip positioned behind likely pacesetter BAYERN. If that one falters, MORENO would get first run. Kentucky Derby winner CALIFORNIA CHROME got the perfect outside post for his preferred in-the-clear trip. He reportedly has trained well and should move up with a prep race behind him. BAYERN will lead as far as he can.

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